Prediction comparison

16-19 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 11/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.2 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.7

Mean swim error201.2 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history8

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Gabriel Guerin FRA	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	17:17	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Guerin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Léandre Brouté FRA	+0 s +105 s	Bike DNF	17:30	Show details Prediction details: Léandre Brouté Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Isaac Barry GBR	+105 s +134 s	Bike DNF	37:57 17:07	Show details Prediction details: Isaac Barry Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +105 s Time: 15:22 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +134 s Fehler: -29.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 37:57 (7:35 / km) Historical basis: 7:35 / km Best comparable pace: 7:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Error: +20:50 / +4:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:22 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:57 (7:35 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Nicolleau Lucas FRA	+0 s +111 s	Bike DNF	18:30	Show details Prediction details: Nicolleau Lucas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +111 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Rodrigo Jerónimo ESP	+0 s +111 s	Bike DNF	18:50	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Jerónimo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +111 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Thomas Elsdon GBR	+0 s +184 s	Bike DNF	18:22	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Elsdon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Joe Reed GBR	+4 s +130 s	Bike DNF	31:57 19:27	Show details Prediction details: Joe Reed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 13:41 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +130 s Fehler: -126.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 31:57 (6:23 / km) Historical basis: 6:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Error: +12:30 / +2:30 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:41 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:57 (6:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Elliot Banks GBR	+0 s +141 s	Bike DNF	19:37	Show details Prediction details: Elliot Banks Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +141 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Maksymilian Hermelin POL	+0 s +199 s	Bike DNF	24:19	Show details Prediction details: Maksymilian Hermelin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +199 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:19 (4:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	David Ramos Asensio ESP	+0 s +448 s	Bike DNF	47:37 22:50	Show details Prediction details: David Ramos Asensio Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +448 s Fehler: -448.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 47:37 (9:31 / km) Historical basis: 9:17 / km Best comparable pace: 9:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:50 (4:34 / km) Error: +24:47 / +4:57 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 47:37 (9:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	David Kinsey GBR	+0 s +128 s	Bike DNF	39:54	Show details Prediction details: David Kinsey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:54 (7:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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