Prediction comparison

20-24 Female AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 35/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 122 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 5.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.5

Mean swim error44.3 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Charlotte Walker GBR	+55 s +77 s	Bike DNF	38:44 19:44	Show details Prediction details: Charlotte Walker Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 14:48 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -22.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 38:44 (7:45 / km) Historical basis: 7:57 / km Best comparable pace: 7:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km) Error: +19:00 / +3:48 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:48 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 38:44 (7:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Sara Iglesias Gómez ESP	+34 s +9 s	Bike DNF	43:02 21:01	Show details Prediction details: Sara Iglesias Gómez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 14:27 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 24.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 43:02 (8:36 / km) Historical basis: 8:50 / km Best comparable pace: 8:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (4:12 / km) Error: +22:01 / +4:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:27 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 43:02 (8:36 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Georgina Munday GBR	+14 s +107 s	Bike DNF	20:12 20:09	Show details Prediction details: Georgina Munday Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 14:07 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +107 s Fehler: -93.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:07 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Florence Crowley GBR	+26 s +0 s	Bike DNF	21:40 23:42	Show details Prediction details: Florence Crowley Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 14:19 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 26.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:40 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 23:42 (4:44 / km) Error: −2:02 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 14:19 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:40 (4:20 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Hannah Walker GBR	+100 s +146 s	Bike DNF	43:29 21:23	Show details Prediction details: Hannah Walker Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +100 s Time: 15:33 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +146 s Fehler: -46.5 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 43:29 (8:42 / km) Historical basis: 8:55 / km Best comparable pace: 8:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:23 (4:17 / km) Error: +22:06 / +4:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:33 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 43:29 (8:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Anna McQueen GBR	+14 s +97 s	Bike DNF	20:45 22:15	Show details Prediction details: Anna McQueen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 14:07 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: -82.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 22:15 (4:27 / km) Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:07 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Berta Bruguera Lopez ESP	+127 s +176 s	Bike DNF	41:25 21:12	Show details Prediction details: Berta Bruguera Lopez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 16:00 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +176 s Fehler: -49.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 41:25 (8:17 / km) Historical basis: 8:30 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:12 (4:14 / km) Error: +20:13 / +4:03 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 16:00 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 41:25 (8:17 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Naoise O'Donnell IRL	+117 s +107 s	Bike DNF	22:54 22:43	Show details Prediction details: Naoise O'Donnell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +117 s Time: 15:50 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +107 s Fehler: 10.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:54 (4:35 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:43 (4:33 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:50 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:54 (4:35 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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