Prediction comparison

20-24 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 4/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 7.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 30.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.2

Mean swim error43.7 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history8

					Details
0 / 1	Abel Reyes Valenzuela ESP	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	17:03 17:09	Show details Prediction details: Abel Reyes Valenzuela Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Adam Mazier FRA	+0 s +67 s	Bike DNF	17:00	Show details Prediction details: Adam Mazier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Samuel Vernalls GBR	+0 s +119 s	Bike DNF	17:23	Show details Prediction details: Samuel Vernalls Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Hugo Vilela Ortiz ESP	+0 s +61 s	Bike DNF	18:37	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Vilela Ortiz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lewis Buckworth GBR	+68 s +99 s	Bike DNF	20:09 19:36	Show details Prediction details: Lewis Buckworth Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 13:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: -31.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 (3:55 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Noah Clarke GBR	+0 s +217 s	Bike DNF	18:33	Show details Prediction details: Noah Clarke Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +217 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	David Roncero Molano ESP	+0 s +166 s	Bike DNF	19:45	Show details Prediction details: David Roncero Molano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +166 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Matthew Downs GBR	+283 s +273 s	Bike DNF	34:28 17:51	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Downs Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +283 s Time: 17:12 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +273 s Fehler: 9.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 34:28 (6:54 / km) Historical basis: 6:54 / km Best comparable pace: 6:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Error: +16:37 / +3:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 17:12 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:28 (6:54 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Finn Allan GBR	+0 s	Bike DNF	18:52	Show details Prediction details: Finn Allan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Thomas Allen GBR	+160 s +205 s	Bike DNF	20:27 19:47	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Allen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +160 s Time: 15:09 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +205 s Fehler: -45.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:57 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Louis Payne GBR	+0 s +299 s	Bike DNF	19:08	Show details Prediction details: Louis Payne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +299 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Thomas Edmond GBR	+211 s +343 s	Bike DNF	19:58 19:36	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Edmond Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +211 s Time: 16:00 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +343 s Fehler: -132.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 (3:55 / km) Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:00 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Oliver Kitt GBR	+0 s +345 s	Bike DNF	20:06	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Kitt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +345 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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