Prediction comparison

25-29 Female AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 17/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 122 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 5.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.2 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.3

Mean swim error51.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history5

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Imogen Matthews GBR	+92 s +103 s	Bike DNF	18:27 17:45	Show details Prediction details: Imogen Matthews Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 15:50 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +103 s Fehler: -11.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km) Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 15:50 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Isis Anna Ciurleo GBR	+0 s +31 s	Bike DNF	21:35 20:36	Show details Prediction details: Isis Anna Ciurleo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: -31.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:21 / km Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 (4:07 / km) Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Gabriella Davey GBR	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	21:40	Show details Prediction details: Gabriella Davey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:40 (4:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Anna Zagórska POL	+0 s +89 s	Bike DNF	21:14	Show details Prediction details: Anna Zagórska Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: -89.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 (4:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Zara Pretious-White GBR	+0 s +62 s	Bike DNF	22:47	Show details Prediction details: Zara Pretious-White Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Steph Roberts GBR	+0 s +78 s	Bike DNF	22:52	Show details Prediction details: Steph Roberts Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:52 (4:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Toni Moore GBR	+179 s +207 s	Bike DNF	20:51 21:58	Show details Prediction details: Toni Moore Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +179 s Time: 17:17 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +207 s Fehler: -28.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:58 (4:24 / km) Error: −1:07 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:17 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Aoife Greene IRL	+392 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Aoife Greene Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +392 s Time: 20:50 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:50 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Ciara Greene IRL	+0 s +271 s	Bike DNF	21:49	Show details Prediction details: Ciara Greene Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +271 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Aoife Mulry IRL	+518 s +422 s	Bike DNF	22:22 24:59	Show details Prediction details: Aoife Mulry Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +518 s Time: 22:56 Pace: 2:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +422 s Fehler: 96.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:22 (4:28 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:59 (5:00 / km) Error: −2:37 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 22:56 (2:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:22 (4:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Rachel Gillivan IRL	+0 s +604 s	Bike DNF	26:10	Show details Prediction details: Rachel Gillivan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +604 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:10 (5:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:18 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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