Prediction comparison

35-39 Female AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 22/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 122 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 5.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 10.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.5

Mean swim error48.4 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Alice Clarkson IRL	+0 s +66 s	Bike DNF	19:44	Show details Prediction details: Alice Clarkson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 15:07 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 15:07 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Nicky Savill GBR	+118 s +95 s	Bike DNF	19:36 20:01	Show details Prediction details: Nicky Savill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: 17:05 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: 22.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:36 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:05 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:36 (3:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Fay Kaina GBR	+80 s +46 s	Bike DNF	22:37 21:45	Show details Prediction details: Fay Kaina Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 16:27 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 33.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 16:27 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Judith Mottram GBR	+136 s +121 s	Bike DNF	20:50 21:26	Show details Prediction details: Judith Mottram Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +136 s Time: 17:23 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +121 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:26 (4:17 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 17:23 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Jennifer Garcia Jimenez ESP	+105 s +194 s	Bike DNF	20:26 21:15	Show details Prediction details: Jennifer Garcia Jimenez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +105 s Time: 16:52 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +194 s Fehler: -89.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:15 (4:15 / km) Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 16:52 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Laura West GBR	+37 s +0 s	Bike DNF	24:00 24:22	Show details Prediction details: Laura West Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 15:44 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 37.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 24:00 (4:48 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:22 (4:52 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:44 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:00 (4:48 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Faye Clark GBR	+195 s +322 s	Bike DNF	19:55	Show details Prediction details: Faye Clark Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +195 s Time: 18:22 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +322 s Fehler: -127.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:22 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Natasha Perks GBR	+275 s +221 s	Bike DNF	20:22 21:40	Show details Prediction details: Natasha Perks Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +275 s Time: 19:42 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +221 s Fehler: 53.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.56 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:40 (4:20 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:42 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Emma Stormont GBR	+97 s +106 s	Bike DNF	21:15 23:39	Show details Prediction details: Emma Stormont Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +97 s Time: 16:44 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: -9.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:15 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:39 (4:44 / km) Error: −2:24 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:44 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:15 (4:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Bisila Noha Pascual GBR	+0 s +217 s	Bike DNF	24:39	Show details Prediction details: Bisila Noha Pascual Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 15:07 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +217 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:39 (4:56 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 15:07 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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