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Prediction comparison

35-39 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 11/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.1 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.2
Mean swim error62.5 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history7
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Thibault Catalot
FRA
+0 s
+0 s
 Bike DNF
17:38
Show details
Prediction details: Thibault Catalot

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Thomas Portala
FRA
+50 s
+114 s
 Bike DNF 19:28
18:33
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Portala

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 14:36
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -64.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:36 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ruben Aguilar Marti
ESP
+63 s
 Bike DNF 18:43
Show details
Prediction details: Ruben Aguilar Marti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 14:49
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 14:49 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Victor García Lopez
ESP
+85 s
+136 s
 Bike DNF 21:50
18:56
Show details
Prediction details: Victor García Lopez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 15:11
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: -51.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.57 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: +2:54 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:11 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Calum Clark
GBR
+115 s
+245 s
 Bike DNF 16:51
17:29
Show details
Prediction details: Calum Clark

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 15:41
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +245 s
Fehler: -130.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:41 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Shaun Challis
GBR
+51 s
+117 s
 Bike DNF 18:20
20:05
Show details
Prediction details: Shaun Challis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 14:37
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: -66.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:37 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Stanley Gruncell
GBR
+154 s
+229 s
 Bike DNF 19:50
18:12
Show details
Prediction details: Stanley Gruncell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +154 s
Time: 16:20
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +229 s
Fehler: -75.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:38 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:20 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Matthew Petch Cooper
GBR
+0 s
+245 s
 Bike DNF
19:01
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Petch Cooper

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +245 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Maciej Sąsiadek
POL
+0 s
+322 s
 Bike DNF
18:59
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Sąsiadek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +322 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 David Williams
GBR
+254 s
+247 s
 Bike DNF
20:04
Show details
Prediction details: David Williams

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +254 s
Time: 18:00
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +247 s
Fehler: 7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:00 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Richard Waldron
GBR
+558 s
+479 s
 Bike DNF 16:39
16:44
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Waldron

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +558 s
Time: 23:04
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +479 s
Fehler: 78.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:04 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Eddie Rolls
GBR
+0 s
+423 s
 Bike DNF
18:35
Show details
Prediction details: Eddie Rolls

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +423 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Chris Moseley
GBR
+0 s
+227 s
 Bike DNF
21:18
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Moseley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +227 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Alex Bale
GBR
+0 s
+288 s
 Bike DNF
20:51
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Bale

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +288 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Riccardo Roatta
ITA
+179 s
+243 s
 Bike DNF
21:49
Show details
Prediction details: Riccardo Roatta

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +179 s
Time: 16:45
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +243 s
Fehler: -64.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:45 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Matthew Garside
GBR
+346 s
+324 s
 Bike DNF 18:37
20:41
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Garside

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +346 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +324 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 James Lee
GBR
+0 s
+543 s
 Bike DNF
20:23
Show details
Prediction details: James Lee

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +543 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Morgan Commons
IRL
+61 s
+190 s
 Bike DNF
27:07
Show details
Prediction details: Morgan Commons

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 14:47
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +190 s
Fehler: -129.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:07 (5:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:47 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Andy Mcnamara
IRL
+0 s
+457 s
 Bike DNF
25:44
Show details
Prediction details: Andy Mcnamara

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +457 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:44 (5:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.