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Prediction comparison

40-44 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 17/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 13.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 53.3 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.0
Mean swim error76.4 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history6
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Ross Hutchison
GBR
+26 s
+3 s
 Bike DNF 17:57
17:57
Show details
Prediction details: Ross Hutchison

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 14:49
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:49 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Eero Raudsepp
EST
+67 s
+0 s
 Bike DNF
19:48
Show details
Prediction details: Eero Raudsepp

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 67.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:30 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Betta Mathieu
FRA
+0 s
+43 s
 Bike DNF
19:01
Show details
Prediction details: Betta Mathieu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Jonathan Webb
GBR
+78 s
+93 s
 Bike DNF 18:20
18:49
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Webb

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 15:41
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: -15.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:41 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Ken Montgomery
GBR
+0 s
+168 s
 Bike DNF
18:27
Show details
Prediction details: Ken Montgomery

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +168 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Simon Farrow
GBR
+0 s
+65 s
 Bike DNF
20:25
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Farrow

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:25 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Steven Owen
GBR
+267 s
+156 s
 Bike DNF 19:39
19:44
Show details
Prediction details: Steven Owen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +267 s
Time: 18:50
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +156 s
Fehler: 110.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:50 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Kevin Payne
GBR
+263 s
+242 s
 Bike DNF 21:54
22:14
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Payne

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +263 s
Time: 18:46
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +242 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 21:54 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:14 (4:27 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:46 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 21:54 (4:23 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 John Seaward
GBR
+301 s
+321 s
 Bike DNF 20:47
22:01
Show details
Prediction details: John Seaward

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +301 s
Time: 19:24
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +321 s
Fehler: -19.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:24 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Martyn Helliker
GBR
+0 s
+341 s
 Bike DNF
21:59
Show details
Prediction details: Martyn Helliker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +341 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Eoghan Cunningham
IRL
+0 s
+341 s
 Bike DNF
23:29
Show details
Prediction details: Eoghan Cunningham

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +341 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:29 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Javier López García
ESP
+354 s
+330 s
 Bike DNF 47:10
25:19
Show details
Prediction details: Javier López García

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +354 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +330 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 47:10 (9:26 / km)
Historical basis: 9:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:19 (5:04 / km)
Error: +21:51 / +4:22 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:17 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 47:10 (9:26 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Scott Strachan
GBR
+0 s
+412 s
 Bike DNF
25:13
Show details
Prediction details: Scott Strachan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +412 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Angel Rodriguez Guitart
ESP
+868 s
+485 s
 Bike DNF 29:57
26:19
Show details
Prediction details: Angel Rodriguez Guitart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +868 s
Time: 28:51
Pace: 2:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +485 s
Fehler: 382.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 29:57 (5:59 / km)
Historical basis: 5:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:19 (5:16 / km)
Error: +3:38 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 28:51 (2:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 29:57 (5:59 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Jose Manuel Fernandez Martinez
ESP
+577 s
+602 s
 Bike DNF 26:20
27:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Manuel Fernandez Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +577 s
Time: 24:00
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +602 s
Fehler: -24.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.37 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 26:20 (5:16 / km)
Historical basis: 5:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:14 (5:27 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 24:00 (2:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 26:20 (5:16 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.