Prediction comparison

65-69 Open AG

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 21/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.7

Mean swim error103.7 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history4

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Neil Cooper IRL	+23 s +0 s	Bike DNF	44:14 22:42	Show details Prediction details: Neil Cooper Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 16:52 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 23.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 44:14 (8:51 / km) Historical basis: 9:04 / km Best comparable pace: 9:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:42 (4:32 / km) Error: +21:32 / +4:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:52 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 44:14 (8:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Pierre Maillol FRA	+0 s +103 s	Bike DNF	22:18	Show details Prediction details: Pierre Maillol Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:29 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +103 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:18 (4:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:29 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Janko Železnikar SLO	+149 s +238 s	Bike DNF	42:37 21:10	Show details Prediction details: Janko Železnikar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +149 s Time: 18:58 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +238 s Fehler: -89.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 42:37 (8:31 / km) Historical basis: 8:29 / km Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:10 (4:14 / km) Error: +21:27 / +4:17 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:58 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 42:37 (8:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Joachim Rathbauer AUT	+76 s +140 s	Bike DNF	47:22 23:13	Show details Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 17:45 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +140 s Fehler: -63.7 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 47:22 (9:28 / km) Historical basis: 9:43 / km Best comparable pace: 9:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:13 (4:39 / km) Error: +24:09 / +4:50 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:45 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 47:22 (9:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Kelvin Spencer GBR	+115 s +232 s	Bike DNF	21:35 22:52	Show details Prediction details: Kelvin Spencer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +115 s Time: 18:24 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +232 s Fehler: -117.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:19 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 22:52 (4:34 / km) Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:24 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:35 (4:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Richard Craddock GBR	+216 s +319 s	Bike DNF	21:48 21:42	Show details Prediction details: Richard Craddock Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +216 s Time: 20:05 Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +319 s Fehler: -103.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (4:20 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:05 (2:01 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	John Thompson GBR	+109 s +48 s	Bike DNF	29:33 26:52	Show details Prediction details: John Thompson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 18:18 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: 61.4 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 29:33 (5:55 / km) Historical basis: 5:46 / km Best comparable pace: 5:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:52 (5:22 / km) Error: +2:41 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:18 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:33 (5:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Nigel Burnell GBR	+279 s +373 s	Bike DNF	26:22 21:49	Show details Prediction details: Nigel Burnell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +279 s Time: 21:08 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +373 s Fehler: -93.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:22 (5:16 / km) Historical basis: 5:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Error: +4:33 / +0:55 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:08 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:22 (5:16 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Douglas Cook GBR	+0 s +258 s	Bike DNF	23:51	Show details Prediction details: Douglas Cook Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:29 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +258 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:51 (4:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:29 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Simon Attwood GBR	+305 s +323 s	Bike DNF	24:29	Show details Prediction details: Simon Attwood Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +305 s Time: 21:34 Pace: 2:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +323 s Fehler: -18.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:29 (4:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:34 (2:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Martyn Lever GBR	+344 s +288 s	Bike DNF	26:01 26:46	Show details Prediction details: Martyn Lever Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +344 s Time: 22:13 Pace: 2:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +288 s Fehler: 55.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 26:01 (5:12 / km) Historical basis: 5:04 / km Best comparable pace: 5:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:46 (5:21 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:13 (2:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:01 (5:12 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Simon Pannell GBR	+97 s +508 s	Bike DNF	22:45 24:14	Show details Prediction details: Simon Pannell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +97 s Time: 18:06 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +508 s Fehler: -410.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:45 (4:33 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:14 (4:51 / km) Error: −1:29 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 18:06 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:45 (4:33 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Simon Anderton GBR	+0 s +649 s	Bike DNF	25:14	Show details Prediction details: Simon Anderton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:29 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +649 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:14 (5:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:29 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Andrew Dunhill GBR	+0 s +373 s	Bike DNF	28:58	Show details Prediction details: Andrew Dunhill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:29 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +373 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:58 (5:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:29 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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