Prediction comparison

U23 Men

18.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 656 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 76.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.0

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Hugo Fernandez Tovar ESP	+24 s	Bike DNF	14:48 12:10	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Fernandez Tovar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 12:24 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:10 (2:26 / km) Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:24 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Raúl Gómez González ESP	+60 s	Bike DNF	15:11 12:41	Show details Prediction details: Raúl Gómez González Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 13:00 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:41 (2:32 / km) Error: +2:30 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:00 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Gorka Rodríguez Hernández ESP	+38 s	Bike DNF	15:29 12:11	Show details Prediction details: Gorka Rodríguez Hernández Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 12:38 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.47 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:11 (2:26 / km) Error: +3:18 / +0:40 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:38 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Julen Andueza Valencia ESP	+29 s	Bike DNF	15:46 12:39	Show details Prediction details: Julen Andueza Valencia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:39 (2:32 / km) Error: +3:07 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Filip Vilenica CRO	+13 s	Bike DNF	16:50 12:09	Show details Prediction details: Filip Vilenica Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 12:13 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:09 (2:26 / km) Error: +4:41 / +0:56 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:13 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Marco Pousada Troitiño ESP	+23 s	Bike DNF	16:44 12:15	Show details Prediction details: Marco Pousada Troitiño Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 12:23 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:15 (2:27 / km) Error: +4:29 / +0:54 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:23 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Tin Rebic CRO	+30 s	Bike DNF	17:48 12:01	Show details Prediction details: Tin Rebic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 12:30 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 45 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:01 (2:24 / km) Error: +5:47 / +1:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:30 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Jan Peterka SLO	+8 s	Bike DNF	17:40 12:05	Show details Prediction details: Jan Peterka Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +8 s Time: 12:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:05 (2:25 / km) Error: +5:35 / +1:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Iliam Colin FRA	+37 s	Bike DNF	16:42 13:00	Show details Prediction details: Iliam Colin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 12:37 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.29 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:00 (2:36 / km) Error: +3:42 / +0:45 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Stijn Koole NED	+17 s	Bike DNF	18:44 12:17	Show details Prediction details: Stijn Koole Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 12:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:17 (2:27 / km) Error: +6:27 / +1:17 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Borna Matuzalem CRO	+71 s	Bike DNF	13:35	Show details Prediction details: Borna Matuzalem Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 13:11 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.73 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 13:35 (2:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:11 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Sem Lazaroms NED	+38 s	Bike DNF	17:52 13:17	Show details Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 12:38 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:17 (2:39 / km) Error: +4:35 / +0:55 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:38 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Ross Killalea IRL	+55 s	Bike DNF	17:31	Show details Prediction details: Ross Killalea Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 12:55 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:55 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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