Prediction comparison

Elite Women

13.06.2026 Ohrid MKD

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Balkan Championships Ohrid

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

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The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 82/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 52 früheren Rennen und 1074 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 63.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.5 % · 52 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

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Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.9

Mean swim error18.2 s

Mean bike-speed error1.12 km/h

Correct bike groups5/21

No history1

Within the 80% range36.4 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Lana Gavrilović SRB	+9 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:52 19:09	53:12	Show details Prediction details: Lana Gavrilović Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 6.0 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 47 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km) Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 53:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Total: 53:12
2 / 14	Mirolyuba Nenkova BUL	+66 s +43 s	G3 / G2	19:25 19:40	54:26	Show details Prediction details: Mirolyuba Nenkova Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 14 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 11:25 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 22.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 90 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h Running and total Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.71 %, Sicherheit 64 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 54:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Total: 54:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 47.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5	Maša Marković SRB	+13 s +26 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:09 19:12	54:29	Show details Prediction details: Maša Marković Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–12 Top-10 probability: 81 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -12.6 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 73 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 10.0 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 21:09 (4:14 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:12 (3:50 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 54:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: 21:09 (4:14 / km) Total: 54:29
4 / 18	Anastasiya Peycheva BUL	+61 s +53 s	G3 / G2	19:47 20:40	54:48	Show details Prediction details: Anastasiya Peycheva Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 18 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 11:20 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 7.6 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 74 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 54:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km) Total: 54:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 42.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6	Tunde Georgiana Crisan ROU	+27 s +3 s	G2 / G1	20:06 19:32	54:48	Show details Prediction details: Tunde Georgiana Crisan Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 2–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 23.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 20:06 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 56 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (3:54 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 54:48 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 20:06 (4:01 / km) Total: 54:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 8.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 13	Mürya Karayel TUR	+11 s +9 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:33 20:15	54:53	Show details Prediction details: Mürya Karayel Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–14 Top-10 probability: 43 % Result: 13 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 10:30 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 1.7 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h Running and total Run: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 68 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 54:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.2 km/h) Run: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Total: 54:53
7 / 1	Mira Ivanova Georgieva BUL	+27 s +29 s	G2 / G1	20:17 18:41	54:59	Show details Prediction details: Mira Ivanova Georgieva Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 4–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 1 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h Running and total Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 85 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 54:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Total: 54:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 8.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3	Tinkara Stres SLO	+38 s +27 s	G3 / G1	19:59 19:10	55:00	Show details Prediction details: Tinkara Stres Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 3–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 3 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 10:57 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 10.9 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.69 %, Sicherheit 48 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 55:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Total: 55:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 19.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11	Aurora Valinčić CRO	+64 s +34 s	G3 / G1	20:07 20:18	55:08	Show details Prediction details: Aurora Valinčić Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 70 % Result: 11 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 11:23 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 29.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 55:08 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:23 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km) Total: 55:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 45.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 19	Nisa Cebeci TUR	+25 s +35 s	G2 / G3	20:43 20:13	55:25	Show details Prediction details: Nisa Cebeci Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 5–13 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 19 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -10.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h Running and total Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 55:25 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km) Total: 55:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 6.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8	Delfin Eylül Avcı TUR	+54 s +6 s	G3 / G1	20:30 19:45	55:31	Show details Prediction details: Delfin Eylül Avcı Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 40 % Result: 8 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 11:13 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 48.4 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.1 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.04 km/h Running and total Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 55:31 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Total: 55:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 36.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15	Karmen Fabris CRO	+39 s +21 s	G3 / G1	20:55 21:05	55:56	Show details Prediction details: Karmen Fabris Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 7–14 Top-10 probability: 26 % Result: 15 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 10:58 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 17.9 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 12.4 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h Running and total Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:08 / km Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 55:56 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Total: 55:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 20.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 7	Iva Pavlovic SRB	+35 s +19 s	G3 / G1	21:06 19:41	56:07	Show details Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 7 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 10:54 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 16.3 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h Running and total Run: 21:06 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:19 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 56:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 21:06 (4:13 / km) Total: 56:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 17 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10	Roza Sporcic CRO	+70 s +44 s	G3 / G1	21:29 20:06	56:30	Show details Prediction details: Roza Sporcic Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 14–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 11:29 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 26.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 18.3 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h Running and total Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km) Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 56:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 21:29 (4:18 / km) Total: 56:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 51.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9	Anna Maria Besenyei ROU	+23 s +0 s	G2 / G1	22:08 19:59	56:50	Show details Prediction details: Anna Maria Besenyei Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 10–16 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 9 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 10:42 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 23.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 82 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 10.0 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h Running and total Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km) Error: +2:09 / +0:26 / km Overall prediction: 56:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 22:08 (4:26 / km) Total: 56:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 3.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17	Natalija Seslija SRB	+27 s +30 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:39 20:33	57:21	Show details Prediction details: Natalija Seslija Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 16–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: -2.7 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h Running and total Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km) Error: +2:06 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 57:21 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 22:39 (4:32 / km) Total: 57:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20	Lana Vale CRO	+30 s +22 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:52 24:19	57:34	Show details Prediction details: Lana Vale Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 16–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 8.2 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h Running and total Run: 22:52 (4:34 / km) Historical basis: 4:34 / km Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:19 (4:52 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 57:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 22:52 (4:34 / km) Total: 57:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 11.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 22	Beyza Bilun Bilgiç TUR	+25 s +27 s	G2 / G5	22:57 23:29	57:39	Show details Prediction details: Beyza Bilun Bilgiç Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 17–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -1.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h Running and total Run: 22:57 (4:35 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:29 (4:42 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 57:39 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:12 (35.1 km/h) Run: 22:57 (4:35 / km) Total: 57:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21	Ruth Maley CAN	+172 s +86 s	G5 / G4	19:38 22:16	58:37	Show details Prediction details: Ruth Maley Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 20–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +172 s Time: 13:11 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +86 s Fehler: 86.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.17 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 84.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h Running and total Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.76 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:16 (4:27 / km) Error: −2:38 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 58:37 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:11 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:07 (33.2 km/h) Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km) Total: 58:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 154 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 2	Alice Perjoiu ROU	+51 s +39 s	G3 / G1	34:06 18:56	1:09:07	Show details Prediction details: Alice Perjoiu Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 11:10 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 12.3 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 83 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.4 s Gap behind: 3.1 s Result: Group 1 (13 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 34:06 (6:49 / km) Historical basis: 7:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 72 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km) Error: +15:10 / +3:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.6 km/h) Run: 34:06 (6:49 / km) Total: 1:09:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 33 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12	Nika Rimaj CRO	+88 s +76 s	G4 / G2	19:01		Show details Prediction details: Nika Rimaj Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +88 s Time: 11:47 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: 12.3 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.3 s Gap behind: 84.0 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:47 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:41 (35.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 70 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16	Korina Juranić CRO	+0 s +35 s	G0 / G2	20:06		Show details Prediction details: Korina Juranić Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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