Prediction comparison

30-34 Open AG

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 21/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.0 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean bike-speed error22.44 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Tony Nivot FRA	+108 s	G0 / G2	25:08 23:05	Show details Prediction details: Tony Nivot Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +108 s Time: Pace: 1:34 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 24.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.03 km/h Running and total Run: 25:08 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:05 (7:13 / km) Error: +2:03 / −3:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:08 (3:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Aleix Sellarés Gonzalez ESP	+265 s	G0 / G3	24:06 22:31	Show details Prediction details: Aleix Sellarés Gonzalez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +265 s Time: Pace: 1:50 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 23.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.39 km/h Running and total Run: 24:06 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:31 (7:02 / km) Error: +1:35 / −3:23 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:06 (3:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Colin Dusserre FRA	+0 s	G0 / G3	45:55 23:18	Show details Prediction details: Colin Dusserre Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 23.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.85 km/h Running and total Run: 45:55 (6:57 / km) Historical basis: 6:57 / km Best comparable pace: 6:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (7:17 / km) Error: +22:37 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 45:55 (6:57 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Jose Carlos Lopez Ruiz ESP	+133 s	G0 / G4	24:15 23:12	Show details Prediction details: Jose Carlos Lopez Ruiz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +133 s Time: Pace: 1:37 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 23.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.19 km/h Running and total Run: 24:15 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (7:15 / km) Error: +1:03 / −3:35 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:15 (3:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Patrick Weitkamp GER	+0 s	G0 / G4	46:11 23:19	Show details Prediction details: Patrick Weitkamp Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 23.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.18 km/h Running and total Run: 46:11 (7:00 / km) Historical basis: 7:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:19 (7:17 / km) Error: +22:52 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 46:11 (7:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Antoine Hubert FRA	+0 s	G0 / G5	44:20 22:45	Show details Prediction details: Antoine Hubert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 21.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.11 km/h Running and total Run: 44:20 (6:43 / km) Historical basis: 6:53 / km Best comparable pace: 6:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:45 (7:07 / km) Error: +21:35 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 44:20 (6:43 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Théo Moreau FRA	+297 s	G0 / G6	42:45 23:17	Show details Prediction details: Théo Moreau Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +297 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 20.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.90 km/h Running and total Run: 42:45 (6:29 / km) Historical basis: 6:29 / km Best comparable pace: 6:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:17 (7:17 / km) Error: +19:28 / −0:48 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 42:45 (6:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Arthur Henrique Reis TRI	+315 s	G0 / G7	29:50 25:36	Show details Prediction details: Arthur Henrique Reis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +315 s Time: Pace: 1:55 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 21.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.62 km/h Running and total Run: 29:50 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:29 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:36 (8:00 / km) Error: +4:14 / −3:29 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:50 (4:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Zach Smallbone GBR	+402 s	G0 / G8	31:28 26:33	Show details Prediction details: Zach Smallbone Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +402 s Time: Pace: 2:03 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 20.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.65 km/h Running and total Run: 31:28 (4:46 / km) Historical basis: 4:52 / km Best comparable pace: 4:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:33 (8:18 / km) Error: +4:55 / −3:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:28 (4:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Aaron Lawrence GBR	+0 s	G0 / G9	29:55	Show details Prediction details: Aaron Lawrence Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 16.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:55 (9:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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