Prediction comparison

35-39 Female AG

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 21/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 66 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 0.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.5

Mean bike-speed error17.46 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Lauren Turley GBR	+47 s	G0 / G1	37:30 27:34	Show details Prediction details: Lauren Turley Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 18.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.38 km/h Running and total Run: 37:30 (5:41 / km) Historical basis: 5:41 / km Best comparable pace: 5:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 27:34 (8:37 / km) Error: +9:56 / −2:56 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:30 (5:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Maje Sánchez García ESP	+262 s	G0 / G1	32:24 29:47	Show details Prediction details: Maje Sánchez García Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +262 s Time: Pace: 2:24 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 19.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.98 km/h Running and total Run: 32:24 (4:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:55 / km Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:47 (9:18 / km) Error: +2:37 / −4:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:24 (4:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Emilie Attanasio FRA	+0 s	G0 / G2	31:33 29:06	Show details Prediction details: Emilie Attanasio Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:58 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 17.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -17.48 km/h Running and total Run: 31:33 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:47 / km Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:06 (9:06 / km) Error: +2:27 / −4:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:33 (4:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Amira Simón Martínez ESP	+0 s	G0 / G3	1:01:46 31:16	Show details Prediction details: Amira Simón Martínez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 15.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.99 km/h Running and total Run: 1:01:46 (9:22 / km) Historical basis: 9:22 / km Best comparable pace: 9:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:16 (9:46 / km) Error: +30:30 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:01:46 (9:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total