Prediction comparison

40-44 Open AG

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.0 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.5

Mean bike-speed error20.26 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Guillaume Roissard FRA	+187 s	G0 / G2	26:09 23:13	Show details Prediction details: Guillaume Roissard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +187 s Time: Pace: 1:49 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 23.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.48 km/h Running and total Run: 26:09 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:13 (7:15 / km) Error: +2:56 / −3:18 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 26:09 (3:58 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Mathieu Louis BEL	+82 s	G0 / G3	25:56 24:42	Show details Prediction details: Mathieu Louis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +82 s Time: Pace: 1:38 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 24.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.00 km/h Running and total Run: 25:56 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:42 (7:43 / km) Error: +1:14 / −3:47 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:56 (3:56 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Juan Diego Haro Martínez ESP	+0 s	G0 / G5	46:15 23:49	Show details Prediction details: Juan Diego Haro Martínez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 22.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -22.29 km/h Running and total Run: 46:15 (7:00 / km) Historical basis: 7:11 / km Best comparable pace: 7:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:49 (7:27 / km) Error: +22:26 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 46:15 (7:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Benoît Lang FRA	+399 s	G0 / G4	28:01 25:11	Show details Prediction details: Benoît Lang Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +399 s Time: Pace: 2:10 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 23.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -23.16 km/h Running and total Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:11 (7:52 / km) Error: +2:50 / −3:37 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Andrés Zapater Puntos ESP	+0 s	G0 / G6	51:38 25:19	Show details Prediction details: Andrés Zapater Puntos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 21.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.99 km/h Running and total Run: 51:38 (7:49 / km) Historical basis: 7:49 / km Best comparable pace: 7:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:19 (7:55 / km) Error: +26:19 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 51:38 (7:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Rémi Letellier FRA	+0 s	G0 / G6	44:09 21:57	Show details Prediction details: Rémi Letellier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.72 km/h Running and total Run: 44:09 (6:41 / km) Historical basis: 6:41 / km Best comparable pace: 6:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:57 (6:52 / km) Error: +22:12 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 44:09 (6:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Florian Labarriere FRA	+215 s	G0 / G7	29:37 26:29	Show details Prediction details: Florian Labarriere Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +215 s Time: Pace: 1:51 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 21.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.34 km/h Running and total Run: 29:37 (4:29 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:29 (8:17 / km) Error: +3:08 / −3:47 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:37 (4:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Garth Spencer GBR	+391 s	G0 / G8	27:29	Show details Prediction details: Garth Spencer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +391 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 18.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.68 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:29 (8:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Andrew Matthews GBR	+873 s	G0 / G9	35:11 29:31	Show details Prediction details: Andrew Matthews Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +873 s Time: Pace: 2:57 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 14.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.47 km/h Running and total Run: 35:11 (5:20 / km) Historical basis: 5:20 / km Best comparable pace: 5:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:31 (9:13 / km) Error: +5:40 / −3:54 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:11 (5:20 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Javier López García ESP	+347 s	G0 / G10	37:48 34:51	Show details Prediction details: Javier López García Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +347 s Time: Pace: 2:01 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 14.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.50 km/h Running and total Run: 37:48 (5:44 / km) Historical basis: 5:43 / km Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:51 (10:53 / km) Error: +2:57 / −5:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:48 (5:44 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total