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Prediction comparison

50-54 Open AG

16.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 26/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 113 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 7.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 30.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 46.2 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Mean bike-speed error19.52 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Nicolas Durin
FRA
+46 s
G0 / G1
 25:10
24:40
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Durin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time:
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 24.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:10 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:40 (7:43 / km)
Error: +0:30 / −3:54 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 25:10 (3:49 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Francisco Burgos Pelegrina
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G2
 47:04
23:18
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Burgos Pelegrina

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 21.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -21.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:04 (7:08 / km)
Historical basis: 7:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (7:17 / km)
Error: +23:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 47:04 (7:08 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ivan Artigas Reixach
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G3
26:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Artigas Reixach

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 21.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:03 (8:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 David Malagon Lopez
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G4
 51:29
27:01
Show details
Prediction details: David Malagon Lopez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 20.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -20.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:29 (7:48 / km)
Historical basis: 7:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:01 (8:27 / km)
Error: +24:28 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 51:29 (7:48 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Ralph Van Dijk
NED
+111 s
G0 / G5
 38:19
27:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ralph Van Dijk

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +111 s
Time:
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 20.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -20.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:19 (5:48 / km)
Historical basis: 5:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:32 (8:36 / km)
Error: +10:47 / −2:48 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 38:19 (5:48 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Mike Wheeler
GBR
+410 s
G0 / G6
 30:08
28:14
Show details
Prediction details: Mike Wheeler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +410 s
Time:
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 19.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -19.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:08 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:14 (8:49 / km)
Error: +1:54 / −4:15 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 30:08 (4:34 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Koen Gheysens
BEL
+0 s
G0 / G7
28:05
Show details
Prediction details: Koen Gheysens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 19.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -19.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:05 (8:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Liam Hanley
IRL
+264 s
G0 / G8
 34:54
29:14
Show details
Prediction details: Liam Hanley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +264 s
Time:
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 19.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -19.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:54 (5:17 / km)
Historical basis: 5:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:14 (9:08 / km)
Error: +5:40 / −3:51 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 34:54 (5:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Simon Sly
GBR
+220 s
G0 / G8
 29:55
27:39
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Sly

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +220 s
Time:
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 18.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -18.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:55 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:39 (8:38 / km)
Error: +2:16 / −4:07 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 29:55 (4:32 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Kevin Morice
GBR
+259 s
G0 / G9
 33:46
30:48
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Morice

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +259 s
Time:
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 17.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -17.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:46 (5:07 / km)
Historical basis: 5:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:48 (9:38 / km)
Error: +2:58 / −4:31 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 33:46 (5:07 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 John Carless
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
30:47
Show details
Prediction details: John Carless

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 15.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:47 (9:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Chris Walton
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G11
35:53
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Walton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 15.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (11:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Simon Marks
GBR
+405 s
G0 / G12
 32:29
37:05
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Marks

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +405 s
Time:
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 12.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -12.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:29 (4:55 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:05 (11:35 / km)
Error: −4:36 / −6:40 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 32:29 (4:55 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.