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Prediction comparison

Junior Men

16.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 656 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.0
Mean bike-speed error23.70 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Oscar Giral Casabona
ESP
+16 s
G0 / G2
 9:53
10:17
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Giral Casabona

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time:
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 24.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:17 (6:51 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −3:34 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Sebastiano Margaria
ITA
+14 s
G0 / G2
 10:20
10:36
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastiano Margaria

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time:
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.31 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 24.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:20 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:36 (7:04 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −3:37 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 10:20 (3:27 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Aleksei Trofimenko
RUS
+34 s
G0 / G3
 10:25
10:40
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksei Trofimenko

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time:
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 24.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:25 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (7:07 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −3:38 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 10:25 (3:28 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Unax Vicente Apiñaniz
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G2
10:35
Show details
Prediction details: Unax Vicente Apiñaniz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 24.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:35 (7:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Roberto Porcu
ITA
+3 s
G0 / G4
 11:34
10:56
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Porcu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time:
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 24.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:34 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:56 (7:17 / km)
Error: +0:38 / −3:26 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 11:34 (3:51 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Miel Gheysens
BEL
+0 s
G0 / G4
10:59
Show details
Prediction details: Miel Gheysens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 24.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:59 (7:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Anguera Julian
FRA
+60 s
G0 / G5
 10:16
10:16
Show details
Prediction details: Anguera Julian

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time:
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 23.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -23.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:16 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:16 (6:51 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −3:25 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 10:16 (3:25 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Euan Murphy
GBR
+7 s
G0 / G6
 12:25
10:59
Show details
Prediction details: Euan Murphy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time:
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 22.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:25 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:59 (7:19 / km)
Error: +1:26 / −3:11 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 12:25 (4:08 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Gabriele Gattino
ITA
+84 s
G0 / G7
10:40
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriele Gattino

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time:
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 22.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -21.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (7:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Izan Cremades Soriano
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
10:18
Show details
Prediction details: Izan Cremades Soriano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 20.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:18 (6:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.