Prediction comparison

Junior Women

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 66 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 0.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean bike-speed error19.95 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	María Tenorio Albo ESP	+67 s	G0 / G1	11:40 11:35	Show details Prediction details: María Tenorio Albo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: Pace: 1:32 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 21.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.15 km/h Running and total Run: 11:40 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:35 (7:43 / km) Error: +0:05 / −3:50 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 11:40 (3:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Luz Ferrandez Montesinos ESP	+31 s	G0 / G2	12:09 12:12	Show details Prediction details: Luz Ferrandez Montesinos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 20.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.69 km/h Running and total Run: 12:09 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:12 (8:08 / km) Error: −0:03 / −4:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 12:09 (4:03 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Amanda Garcia Garcia ESP	+33 s	G0 / G2	12:14 11:34	Show details Prediction details: Amanda Garcia Garcia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 20.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.25 km/h Running and total Run: 12:14 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:34 (7:43 / km) Error: +0:40 / −3:38 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 12:14 (4:05 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Daria Volkova RUS	+19 s	G0 / G3	13:21 12:49	Show details Prediction details: Daria Volkova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: Pace: 1:28 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 19.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.25 km/h Running and total Run: 13:21 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:49 (8:33 / km) Error: +0:32 / −4:06 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 13:21 (4:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Julia Tenorio Albo ESP	+74 s	G0 / G4	11:26 11:57	Show details Prediction details: Julia Tenorio Albo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: Pace: 1:32 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 18.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.40 km/h Running and total Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:57 (7:58 / km) Error: −0:31 / −4:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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