Prediction comparison

U23 Men

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 42/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 656 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 37.5 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.3

Mean bike-speed error23.80 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Otto Teulingkx BEL	+0 s	G0 / G1	21:19	Show details Prediction details: Otto Teulingkx Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 26.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -26.16 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 (6:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Yannis Devoldere BEL	+714 s	G0 / G2	29:22 21:45	Show details Prediction details: Yannis Devoldere Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +714 s Time: Pace: 2:07 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 25.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -25.36 km/h Running and total Run: 29:22 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km Trend: −0:06 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (6:48 / km) Error: +7:37 / −2:21 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:22 (4:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Javier Alvarez Manso ESP	+67 s	G0 / G3	22:11 20:58	Show details Prediction details: Javier Alvarez Manso Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 24.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.39 km/h Running and total Run: 22:11 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (6:33 / km) Error: +1:13 / −3:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:11 (3:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Alberto Ferrero ITA	+52 s	G0 / G3	25:18 21:42	Show details Prediction details: Alberto Ferrero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 24.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.75 km/h Running and total Run: 25:18 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (6:47 / km) Error: +3:36 / −2:57 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:18 (3:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Jan Chrzanowski POL	+37 s	G0 / G4	22:28 21:52	Show details Prediction details: Jan Chrzanowski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: Pace: 1:17 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 24.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -24.31 km/h Running and total Run: 22:28 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:52 (6:50 / km) Error: +0:36 / −3:26 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:28 (3:24 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Francisco Javier Pelegrin Martinez ESP	+0 s	G0 / G5	21:21	Show details Prediction details: Francisco Javier Pelegrin Martinez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 22.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (6:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Aleix García Vilaseca ESP	+30 s	G0 / G6	24:05 22:22	Show details Prediction details: Aleix García Vilaseca Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 22.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.96 km/h Running and total Run: 24:05 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:22 (6:59 / km) Error: +1:43 / −3:20 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:05 (3:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Fernando Carmona Palacio ESP	+19 s	G0 / G7	28:01 22:46	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Carmona Palacio Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 19.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.64 km/h Running and total Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:46 (7:07 / km) Error: +5:15 / −2:52 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total