Prediction comparison

U23 Women

16.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 66 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 0.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 83.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean bike-speed error19.92 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Noemi Bogiatto ITA	+307 s	G0 / G1	42:49 24:27	Show details Prediction details: Noemi Bogiatto Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +307 s Time: Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 21.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -21.84 km/h Running and total Run: 42:49 (6:29 / km) Historical basis: 6:45 / km Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km Trend: −0:06 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:27 (7:38 / km) Error: +18:22 / −1:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 42:49 (6:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Lucia Gracia Sancho ESP	+53 s	G0 / G2	46:08 25:29	Show details Prediction details: Lucia Gracia Sancho Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 20.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.03 km/h Running and total Run: 46:08 (6:59 / km) Historical basis: 6:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:29 (7:58 / km) Error: +20:39 / −0:58 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 46:08 (6:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Katja Krenn AUT	+71 s	G0 / G3	28:49 27:55	Show details Prediction details: Katja Krenn Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: Pace: 1:33 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 20.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -20.31 km/h Running and total Run: 28:49 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:55 (8:43 / km) Error: +0:54 / −4:22 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:49 (4:22 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Mia Padmanabhan GBR	+31 s	G0 / G4	24:47 25:20	Show details Prediction details: Mia Padmanabhan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: Pace: 1:29 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 18.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.84 km/h Running and total Run: 24:47 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:20 (7:55 / km) Error: −0:33 / −4:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:47 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Zoila Sicilia Martin ESP	+110 s	G0 / G4	31:37 25:28	Show details Prediction details: Zoila Sicilia Martin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +110 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 18.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -18.84 km/h Running and total Run: 31:37 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:49 / km Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:28 (7:58 / km) Error: +6:09 / −3:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:37 (4:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Kyra Brouwer NED	+41 s	G0 / G5	28:55 28:38	Show details Prediction details: Kyra Brouwer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -19.65 km/h Running and total Run: 28:55 (4:23 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 28:38 (8:57 / km) Error: +0:17 / −4:34 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 28:55 (4:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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