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Prediction comparison

18-19 Open AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 27 früheren Rennen und 257 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 27 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error22.0 s
Mean bike-speed error24.33 km/h
Correct bike groups0/1
No history4
Within the 80% range60.0 %
Place
Prediction / result
Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result
Bike group
Prediction / result
Run
Prediction / result
Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 James Burnett
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
25:31
Show details
Prediction details: James Burnett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 23.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 25:31 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Mario Izquierdo Niño
ESP
+25 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
25:08
Show details
Prediction details: Mario Izquierdo Niño

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 13:02
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 22.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 21.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 25:08 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:02 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 24:41 (45.7 km/h)
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Pablo Olmos Gordo
ESP
+0 s
+25 s
G0 / G3
25:59
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Olmos Gordo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 21.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 25:59 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Hugo Biggi-Henry
FRA
+0 s
+136 s
G0 / G4
36:47
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Biggi-Henry

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 19.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 36:47 (5:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Mario Ortega Gandia
ESP
+0 s
+296 s
G0 / G5
30:44
Show details
Prediction details: Mario Ortega Gandia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +296 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 30:44 (4:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.