20-24 Female AG
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 166 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.8 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 3 |
Alba Perez Molina
ESP
|
+91 s
+104 s
|
G1 / G3
|
42:04
43:05
|
1:11:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 21:34
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
117.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 12.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 27.64 km/h
Running and totalRun: 42:04 (6:22 / km)
Historical basis: 6:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:05 (6:32 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:22
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
21:34
(2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
27:47
(40.6 km/h)
Run:
42:04
(6:22 / km)
Total:
1:11:22
|
| 0 / 1 |
Kyra Brouwer
NED
|
+208 s
+41 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
28:55
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +208 s
Time: 23:31
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 167.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
117.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 20.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.58 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:55 (4:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
23:31
(2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
27:47
(40.6 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:40
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
About 111.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +96.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
|
| 0 / 2 |
Camille Bacquenois
FRA
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G1
|
32:02
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 20:03
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 20.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:02 (4:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
20:03
(2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|