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20-24 Open AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 59/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 27 früheren Rennen und 257 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 27 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.4
Mean swim error40.9 s
Mean bike-speed error12.28 km/h
Correct bike groups0/5
No history3
Within the 80% range12.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Elian Olasagasti
FRA
+53 s
+0 s
G1 / G4
 27:31
24:46
 56:43
Show details
Prediction details: Elian Olasagasti

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 13:24
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 53.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 22.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:31 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:45 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 56:43
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:24 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 27:31 (4:10 / km)
Total: 56:43
2 / 3 Pablo Fernandez Palma
ESP
+63 s
+21 s
G1 / G4
 27:40
22:58
 56:52
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Fernandez Palma

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 13:34
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 41.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 52.2 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 22.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:40 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:58 (3:29 / km)
Error: +4:42 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 56:52
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:34 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 27:40 (4:12 / km)
Total: 56:52
3 / 5 Gerard Rodriguez Viladrich
ESP
+115 s
+86 s
G2 / G4
 27:02
26:27
 1:14:04
Show details
Prediction details: Gerard Rodriguez Viladrich

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 14:26
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: 29.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 52.2 s
Gap behind: 43.2 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 22.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:02 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:27 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:04
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:26 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:24 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 27:02 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:14:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 49.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Pedro Pelaez Manzano
ESP
+158 s
+193 s
G2 / G6
 41:08
34:32
 1:28:10
Show details
Prediction details: Pedro Pelaez Manzano

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +158 s
Time: 15:09
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: -34.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 43.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 19.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:08 (6:14 / km)
Historical basis: 6:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:32 (5:14 / km)
Error: +6:36 / +1:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:10
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:09 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:24 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 41:08 (6:14 / km)
Total: 1:28:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 92.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Gabriel Bacquenois
FRA
+0 s
+141 s
G0 / G1
23:40
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Bacquenois

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:31
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 24.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:40 (3:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Carlos Sales Roger
ESP
+62 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
24:04
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Sales Roger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 13:33
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 46.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 22.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:04 (3:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:33 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:09 (40.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6 Manuel Lares-Franco Diaz-Miguel
ESP
+0 s
+21 s
G0 / G3
27:17
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Lares-Franco Diaz-Miguel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:31
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 22.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:17 (4:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Emilio Fernández Gallardo
ESP
+0 s
+177 s
G0 / G5
32:21
Show details
Prediction details: Emilio Fernández Gallardo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:31
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +177 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 18.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (4:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.