Prediction comparison

35-39 Open AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 27 früheren Rennen und 257 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 27 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.1

Mean swim error95.5 s

Mean bike-speed error13.52 km/h

Correct bike groups0/8

No history2

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 7	Ruben Aguilar Marti ESP	+146 s +48 s	G2 / G7	25:01 28:05	1:02:22	Show details Prediction details: Ruben Aguilar Marti Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +146 s Time: 17:17 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: 98.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.8 s Gap behind: 34.9 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 17.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.51 km/h Running and total Run: 25:01 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:05 (4:15 / km) Error: −3:04 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:22 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 17:17 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 25:01 (3:47 / km) Total: 1:02:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 143.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 8	Alfred Torrents Casas ESP	+181 s +278 s	G2 / G8	25:06 27:25	1:02:27	Show details Prediction details: Alfred Torrents Casas Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +181 s Time: 17:52 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +278 s Fehler: -97.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 34.9 s Gap behind: 11.1 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 18.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 14.79 km/h Running and total Run: 25:06 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:25 (4:09 / km) Error: −2:19 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:27 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 17:52 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 25:06 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:02:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 15:06 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m About 165.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9	Stanley Gruncell GBR	+116 s +140 s	G2 / G9	26:28 29:46	1:03:49	Show details Prediction details: Stanley Gruncell Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +116 s Time: 16:47 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +140 s Fehler: -23.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 81.1 s Gap behind: 29.8 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 16.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 16.44 km/h Running and total Run: 26:28 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:46 (4:31 / km) Error: −3:18 / −0:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:49 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:47 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 26:28 (4:01 / km) Total: 1:03:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 113.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2	Jeremie Drugeot FRA	+35 s +95 s	G2 / G3	28:01 25:02	1:05:22	Show details Prediction details: Jeremie Drugeot Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 15:26 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: -59.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 35.1 s Gap behind: 81.1 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 22.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 10.65 km/h Running and total Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 25:02 (3:48 / km) Error: +2:59 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:22 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 15:26 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 28:01 (4:15 / km) Total: 1:05:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 32.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Diego Perez GBR	+237 s +278 s	G2 / G5	32:12 31:34	1:09:33	Show details Prediction details: Diego Perez Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +237 s Time: 18:48 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +278 s Fehler: -41.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.0 s Gap behind: 80.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 21.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 11.68 km/h Running and total Run: 32:12 (4:53 / km) Historical basis: 4:53 / km Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:34 (4:47 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:33 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 18:48 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 32:12 (4:53 / km) Total: 1:09:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 234.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Miguel Lopez Del Pino ESP	+192 s +222 s	G2 / G6	33:16 28:03	1:10:37	Show details Prediction details: Miguel Lopez Del Pino Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +192 s Time: 18:03 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +222 s Fehler: -30.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.1 s Gap behind: 45.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 19.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 14.08 km/h Running and total Run: 33:16 (5:02 / km) Historical basis: 5:02 / km Best comparable pace: 5:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:03 (4:15 / km) Error: +5:13 / +0:47 / km Overall prediction: 1:10:37 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:03 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (33.0 km/h) Run: 33:16 (5:02 / km) Total: 1:10:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 189 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4	Benjamin Lombardo FRA	+317 s +272 s	G3 / G4	27:13 25:56	1:17:37	Show details Prediction details: Benjamin Lombardo Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +317 s Time: 20:08 Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +272 s Fehler: 45.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 80.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 23.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 27:13 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:56 (3:56 / km) Error: +1:17 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:17:37 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:08 (2:01 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:07 (25.0 km/h) Run: 27:13 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:17:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:54 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m About 314.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Arnaud Taurelle FRA	+0 s +235 s	G0 / G1	25:17		Show details Prediction details: Arnaud Taurelle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:51 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +235 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 24.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:17 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:51 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Thomas Portala FRA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G2	26:35		Show details Prediction details: Thomas Portala Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:51 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 22.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:35 (4:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 14:51 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Ibon Romero Cabezas ESP	+0 s +369 s	G1 / G10	31:57		Show details Prediction details: Ibon Romero Cabezas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 14:51 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +369 s Fehler: -369.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 35.1 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 16.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 23.49 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:57 (4:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:51 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:59 (40.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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