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50-54 Female AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 52/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 166 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 28.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.1 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.7
Mean swim error80.4 s
Mean bike-speed error19.55 km/h
Correct bike groups0/7
No history0
Within the 80% range42.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Joanne Wilson
GBR
+21 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 28:37
33:18
 56:45
Show details
Prediction details: Joanne Wilson

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 16:23
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.77 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 60.4 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 18.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:37 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:18 (5:03 / km)
Error: −4:41 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 56:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:23 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:47 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 28:37 (4:20 / km)
Total: 56:45
2 / 5 Sarah Bennetts
GBR
+254 s
+176 s
G3 / G5
 30:30
35:30
 1:06:36
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Bennetts

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +254 s
Time: 20:16
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +176 s
Fehler: 78.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 15.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:30 (4:37 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (5:23 / km)
Error: −5:00 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:36
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:16 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:52 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 30:30 (4:37 / km)
Total: 1:06:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 227.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Hannah Quay
GBR
+210 s
+21 s
G3 / G4
 31:05
37:19
 1:07:11
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Quay

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +210 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 188.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: 27.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:05 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:19 (5:39 / km)
Error: −6:14 / −0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:11
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 19:32 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:52 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 31:05 (4:43 / km)
Total: 1:07:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 182.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Erna Fontein
FRA
+81 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 35:25
29:54
 1:09:06
Show details
Prediction details: Erna Fontein

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 17:23
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 81.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.66 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 60.4 s
Gap behind: 48.6 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 18.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:25 (5:22 / km)
Historical basis: 5:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:54 (4:32 / km)
Error: +5:31 / +0:50 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:06
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:23 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 35:25 (5:22 / km)
Total: 1:09:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 54.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7 Joanne Staton
GBR
+201 s
+149 s
G2 / G7
 55:01
42:29
 1:28:42
Show details
Prediction details: Joanne Staton

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +201 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: 52.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 71.0 s
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 21.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 55:01 (8:20 / km)
Historical basis: 8:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:29 (6:26 / km)
Error: +12:32 / +1:54 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:42
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:23 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 55:01 (8:20 / km)
Total: 1:28:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 174.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Amelie Vantomme
FRA
+130 s
+84 s
G2 / G3
34:20
Show details
Prediction details: Amelie Vantomme

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +130 s
Time: 18:12
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 46.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 48.6 s
Gap behind: 71.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 18.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:20 (5:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 18:12 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (35.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 103.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Sonia Simon Berbel
ESP
+237 s
+344 s
G3 / G6
39:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sonia Simon Berbel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +237 s
Time: 19:59
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +344 s
Fehler: -107.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.4 s
Gap behind: 17.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 15.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:09 (5:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:59 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:52 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:29
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 210.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.