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55-59 Female AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 73/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 166 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error250.5 s
Mean bike-speed error8.12 km/h
Correct bike groups3/6
No history1
Within the 80% range42.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Sally Smith
GBR
+107 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 29:44
32:40
 1:16:01
Show details
Prediction details: Sally Smith

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +107 s
Time: 20:24
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 107.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.0 s
Gap behind: 39.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 16.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:44 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:40 (4:57 / km)
Error: −2:56 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:01
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:24 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:30 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 29:44 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:16:01
2 / 1 Nathalie Olasagasti
FRA
+70 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:54
30:28
 1:21:11
Show details
Prediction details: Nathalie Olasagasti

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 19:47
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 60.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 37.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 18.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:54 (5:17 / km)
Historical basis: 5:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:02 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:28 (4:37 / km)
Error: +4:26 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:11
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:47 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:30 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 34:54 (5:17 / km)
Total: 1:21:11
3 / 4 Renell Brennan
GBR
+146 s
+178 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:22
37:03
 1:25:17
Show details
Prediction details: Renell Brennan

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +146 s
Time: 21:03
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +178 s
Fehler: -31.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.2 s
Gap behind: 81.7 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 18.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:22 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:03 (5:37 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:03 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:48 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 36:22 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:25:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:30
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
About 33.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +112.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Emmanuelle Massonnat
FRA
+247 s
+152 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:02
32:22
 1:26:57
Show details
Prediction details: Emmanuelle Massonnat

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +247 s
Time: 22:44
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +152 s
Fehler: 95.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.1 s
Gap behind: 823.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 17.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:02 (5:46 / km)
Historical basis: 5:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:22 (4:54 / km)
Error: +5:40 / +0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:57
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:44 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:48 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 38:02 (5:46 / km)
Total: 1:26:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:57
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 106.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Annette Werle
FRA
+228 s
+53 s
G2 / G4
 40:58
37:13
 1:29:53
Show details
Prediction details: Annette Werle

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +228 s
Time: 22:25
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 174.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 81.7 s
Gap behind: 19.1 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:58 (6:12 / km)
Historical basis: 6:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:13 (5:38 / km)
Error: +3:45 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:25 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:48 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 40:58 (6:12 / km)
Total: 1:29:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:57
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
About 87.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Louella Yorke
GBR
+1,070 s
+36 s
G3 / G4
32:49
Show details
Prediction details: Louella Yorke

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,070 s
Time: 36:27
Pace: 3:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 1,034.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 823.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 16.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:49 (4:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 36:27 (3:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:46 (27.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 25:26
Pace: 2:33 / 100 m
About 661.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +408.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Eva Puig Costa
ESP
+0 s
+192 s
G0 / G5
40:33
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Puig Costa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 18:37
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +192 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:33 (6:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 18:37 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.