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65-69 Open AG

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 27 früheren Rennen und 257 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 27 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.1
Mean swim error99.2 s
Mean bike-speed error17.05 km/h
Correct bike groups1/9
No history3
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Janko Železnikar
SLO
+0 s
+114 s
G1 / G3
 26:02
29:34
 58:24
Show details
Prediction details: Janko Železnikar

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:20
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -114.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.24 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 143.9 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 19.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:02 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:34 (4:29 / km)
Error: −3:32 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 58:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:20 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 26:02 (3:57 / km)
Total: 58:24
2 / 1 Joachim Rathbauer
AUT
+144 s
+43 s
G2 / G1
 34:21
31:40
 1:08:41
Show details
Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +144 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 100.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 143.9 s
Gap behind: 77.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 19.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 15.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:21 (5:12 / km)
Historical basis: 5:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:40 (4:48 / km)
Error: +2:41 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:56 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 34:21 (5:12 / km)
Total: 1:08:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:46
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
About 118.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Eric Lescure
FRA
+221 s
+173 s
G3 / G3
correct 		35:39
32:53
 1:19:30
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Lescure

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +221 s
Time: 20:01
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +173 s
Fehler: 48.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 77.5 s
Gap behind: 93.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 19.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:39 (5:24 / km)
Historical basis: 5:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:53 (4:59 / km)
Error: +2:46 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:30
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:01 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 35:39 (5:24 / km)
Total: 1:19:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:23
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 218.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Nicholas Farnell
GBR
+354 s
+373 s
G3 / G7
 37:42
37:21
 1:21:33
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Farnell

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +354 s
Time: 22:14
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +373 s
Fehler: -19.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.2 s
Gap behind: 242.1 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 17.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:42 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:58 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:21 (5:40 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:14 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 37:42 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:21:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 213.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Phil Smith
GBR
+315 s
+172 s
G3 / G5
 38:23
32:38
 1:22:14
Show details
Prediction details: Phil Smith

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +315 s
Time: 21:35
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +172 s
Fehler: 142.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 93.3 s
Gap behind: 39.2 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 17.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:23 (5:49 / km)
Historical basis: 5:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:38 (4:57 / km)
Error: +5:45 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:14
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 21:35 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 38:23 (5:49 / km)
Total: 1:22:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 173.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Bjorn Alsos
GBR
+647 s
+513 s
G3 / G11
 41:12
36:55
 1:25:03
Show details
Prediction details: Bjorn Alsos

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +647 s
Time: 27:07
Pace: 2:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +513 s
Fehler: 133.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.6 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 15.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:12 (6:15 / km)
Historical basis: 6:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:55 (5:36 / km)
Error: +4:17 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:03
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 27:07 (2:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 41:12 (6:15 / km)
Total: 1:25:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 505.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 Albert Moulis
FRA
+672 s
+608 s
G3 / G10
 44:21
47:14
 1:28:12
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Moulis

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +672 s
Time: 27:32
Pace: 2:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +608 s
Fehler: 63.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 16.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:21 (6:43 / km)
Historical basis: 6:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:14 (7:09 / km)
Error: −2:53 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:12
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 27:32 (2:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 44:21 (6:43 / km)
Total: 1:28:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 530.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 David Thompson
GBR
+606 s
+629 s
G3 / G12
 56:02
43:26
 1:39:53
Show details
Prediction details: David Thompson

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +606 s
Time: 26:26
Pace: 2:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +629 s
Fehler: -22.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.1 s
Gap behind: 40.6 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 14.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 56:02 (8:29 / km)
Historical basis: 8:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:26 (6:35 / km)
Error: +12:36 / +1:55 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:53
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 26:26 (2:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 56:02 (8:29 / km)
Total: 1:39:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 465.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Hervé Vlaemynck
FRA
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G2
32:31
Show details
Prediction details: Hervé Vlaemynck

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:20
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 18.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:31 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:20 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Stuart Lee Martin
GBR
+0 s
+270 s
G0 / G6
34:30
Show details
Prediction details: Stuart Lee Martin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:20
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +270 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:30 (5:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:20 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Robert Votteler
GER
+0 s
+205 s
G0 / G4
35:11
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Votteler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 16:20
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +205 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:11 (5:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 16:20 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Werner Nussbaumer
GER
+596 s
+349 s
G3 / G9
36:17
Show details
Prediction details: Werner Nussbaumer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +596 s
Time: 26:16
Pace: 2:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +349 s
Fehler: 247.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 242.1 s
Gap behind: 10.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 16.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:17 (5:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 26:16 (2:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (34.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
About 455.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +140.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.