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Elite Men

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 77/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 19 früheren Rennen und 511 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 85.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 19 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.5
Mean swim error10.9 s
Mean bike-speed error9.17 km/h
Correct bike groups2/21
No history0
Within the 80% range38.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 20:50
22:59
 47:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 22.4 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:50 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 2.12 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 (3:29 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 47:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:33 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 20:50 (3:09 / km)
Total: 47:28
2 / 4 Vicente Hernandez
ESP
+36 s
+38 s
G2 / G4
 20:27
21:00
 50:27
Show details
Prediction details: Vicente Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 12:33
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:27 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 20:27 (3:06 / km)
Total: 50:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Jan Chrzanowski
POL
+40 s
+52 s
G2 / G4
 22:35
22:19
 52:35
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Chrzanowski

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -12.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:35 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 22:35 (3:25 / km)
Total: 52:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Alejandro Pla Estebanez
ESP
+38 s
+33 s
G2 / G3
 24:40
23:45
 54:40
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Pla Estebanez

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 12:35
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:45 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 54:40
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:35 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 24:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 54:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 30 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 1 Eneko De Castro Cativiela
ESP
+28 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		25:02
21:27
 55:02
Show details
Prediction details: Eneko De Castro Cativiela

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 12:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 25.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:27 (3:15 / km)
Error: +3:35 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 55:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 25:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 55:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3 Michele Bonacina
ITA
+27 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 26:11
22:52
 56:11
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 12:24
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -9.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 22.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:11 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:52 (3:28 / km)
Error: +3:19 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 56:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:24 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 26:11 (3:58 / km)
Total: 56:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Lukas Maes
BEL
+34 s
+60 s
G2 / G4
 30:07
23:06
 1:00:07
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Maes

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 12:31
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -26.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 25.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:07 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.88 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:06 (3:30 / km)
Error: +7:01 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:07
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:31 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 30:07 (4:34 / km)
Total: 1:00:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 15 Jakub Miklencic
SVK
+84 s
+89 s
G3 / G7
 23:36
24:26
 1:00:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Miklencic

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 13:21
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 25.8 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 24.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:36 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:26 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:21 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 23:36 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:00:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 76.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 2 Lukas Kocar
CZE
+44 s
+45 s
G3 / G1
 24:25
22:24
 1:01:32
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Kocar

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 12:41
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:25 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:24 (3:24 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:41 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 24:25 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:01:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 36.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13 Alberto Ferrero
ITA
+54 s
+52 s
G3 / G6
 25:35
25:18
 1:02:42
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Ferrero

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 12:51
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 24.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:35 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:18 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:42
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:51 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 25:35 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:02:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 45.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 16 Corentin Lefer
FRA
+56 s
+80 s
G3 / G9
 25:38
23:17
 1:02:45
Show details
Prediction details: Corentin Lefer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 12:53
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -24.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 23.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:38 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:17 (3:32 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:45
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:53 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 25:38 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:02:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 47.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Federico Spinazzé
ITA
+47 s
+48 s
G3 / G2
 26:56
23:04
 1:04:03
Show details
Prediction details: Federico Spinazzé

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 12:44
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:56 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:04 (3:30 / km)
Error: +3:52 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:44 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 26:56 (4:05 / km)
Total: 1:04:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Ben Vyvey
BEL
+78 s
+57 s
G3 / G6
 28:46
24:05
 1:05:53
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Vyvey

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 13:15
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 20.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.2 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 24.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:46 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.80 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:05 (3:39 / km)
Error: +4:41 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:53
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:15 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 28:46 (4:21 / km)
Total: 1:05:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 69.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 18 Henry Branwell-Reeks
GBR
+66 s
+59 s
G3 / G11
 30:34
22:41
 1:07:41
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Branwell-Reeks

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 13:03
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 12.2 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 22.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:34 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -2.45 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:41 (3:26 / km)
Error: +7:53 / +1:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:41
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:03 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 30:34 (4:38 / km)
Total: 1:07:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 57.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Paco Martí Ballester
ESP
+32 s
+62 s
G2 / G12
 38:17
23:18
 1:08:17
Show details
Prediction details: Paco Martí Ballester

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 12:29
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -30.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.99 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 22.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:17 (5:48 / km)
Historical basis: 6:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (3:32 / km)
Error: +14:59 / +2:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:17
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 38:17 (5:48 / km)
Total: 1:08:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 23.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 Michael Fuchs
GER
+64 s
+91 s
G3 / G5
 31:14
24:57
 1:08:21
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Fuchs

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 13:01
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -27.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 25.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:14 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: +6:17 / +0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:21
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:01 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 31:14 (4:44 / km)
Total: 1:08:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 55.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 21 Manuel Cossu
ITA
+51 s
+54 s
G3 / G10
 31:43
27:14
 1:08:50
Show details
Prediction details: Manuel Cossu

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 12:48
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 22.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:43 (4:48 / km)
Historical basis: 4:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.14 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:14 (4:08 / km)
Error: +4:29 / +0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:50
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:48 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 31:43 (4:48 / km)
Total: 1:08:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 42.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 10 Arthur Forissier
FRA
+110 s
+109 s
G4 / G4
correct 		25:04
24:36
 1:12:01
Show details
Prediction details: Arthur Forissier

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 13:47
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.8 s
Gap behind: 84.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:04 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:36 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:47 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 45:07 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 25:04 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:12:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 101.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Daniel Kraviansky
SVK
+195 s
+201 s
G5 / G8
 26:30
24:26
 1:14:52
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Kraviansky

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +195 s
Time: 15:12
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +201 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 84.7 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 24.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:30 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:26 (3:42 / km)
Error: +2:04 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:12 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:57 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 26:30 (4:01 / km)
Total: 1:14:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 186.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Ondrej Vit
CZE
+205 s
+204 s
G5 / G11
 29:49
24:38
 1:18:11
Show details
Prediction details: Ondrej Vit

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +205 s
Time: 15:22
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +204 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 23.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:49 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -2.04 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: +5:11 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:11
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:22 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:57 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 29:49 (4:31 / km)
Total: 1:18:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 196.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Roberto Almansa Bauzá
ESP
+27 s
+47 s
G2 / G6
25:45
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Almansa Bauzá

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 12:24
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -19.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 24.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:45 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:24 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:19
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.