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Junior Women

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 62/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 166 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error13.5 s
Mean bike-speed error16.92 km/h
Correct bike groups2/8
No history0
Within the 80% range37.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Alba Nuñez Hernández
ESP
+24 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		12:29
12:45
 28:25
Show details
Prediction details: Alba Nuñez Hernández

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 7:20
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -8.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 22.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:45 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 28:25
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:20 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 12:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 28:25
2 / 4 Luz Ferrandez Montesinos
ESP
+28 s
+31 s
G1 / G4
 12:32
12:58
 28:28
Show details
Prediction details: Luz Ferrandez Montesinos

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 7:24
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 20.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:32 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:58 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 28:28
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:24 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 12:32 (3:55 / km)
Total: 28:28
3 / 7 María Romero Lopez
ESP
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G5
 12:50
14:22
 28:46
Show details
Prediction details: María Romero Lopez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 6:59
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 19.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:50 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (4:29 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 28:46
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:59 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 12:50 (4:01 / km)
Total: 28:46
4 / 5 María Tenorio Albo
ESP
+35 s
+67 s
G2 / G6
 12:12
12:28
 28:48
Show details
Prediction details: María Tenorio Albo

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 7:31
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -31.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 37.6 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 20.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:12 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 28:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:31 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 12:12 (3:49 / km)
Total: 28:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Daria Volkova
RUS
+20 s
+19 s
G1 / G3
 13:57
14:14
 29:53
Show details
Prediction details: Daria Volkova

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 7:16
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.1 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 20.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:57 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (4:27 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 29:53
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:16 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 13:57 (4:22 / km)
Total: 29:53
6 / 2 Serena Bratti
ITA
+5 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:49
13:40
 30:45
Show details
Prediction details: Serena Bratti

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 7:01
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -13.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 15.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 22.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:49 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:40 (4:16 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 30:45
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:01 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 14:49 (4:38 / km)
Total: 30:45
7 / 8 Yke Spelde
NED
+78 s
+85 s
G3 / G7
 13:33
15:56
 32:35
Show details
Prediction details: Yke Spelde

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 8:14
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 17.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:33 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.02 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (4:59 / km)
Error: −2:23 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 32:35
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:14 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:45 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 13:33 (4:14 / km)
Total: 32:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 44 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3 Amanda Garcia Garcia
ESP
+73 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 14:26
13:03
 33:28
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda Garcia Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 8:09
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 39.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.6 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 21.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:26 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:03 (4:05 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 33:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:09 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:45 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 14:26 (4:31 / km)
Total: 33:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 39.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.