Prediction comparison

U23 Men

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 74/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 19 früheren Rennen und 511 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 19 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.2

Mean swim error11.4 s

Mean bike-speed error13.77 km/h

Correct bike groups3/10

No history0

Within the 80% range60.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Jan Chrzanowski POL	+40 s +45 s	G2 / G3	22:35 22:19	53:08	Show details Prediction details: Jan Chrzanowski Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 12:37 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -4.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 10.0 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 25.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.57 km/h Running and total Run: 22:35 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 53:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:37 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (37.8 km/h) Run: 22:35 (3:25 / km) Total: 53:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 8.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Eneko De Castro Cativiela ESP	+28 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	25:10 21:27	53:29	Show details Prediction details: Eneko De Castro Cativiela Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 12:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 27.9 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 10.6 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 25.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 14.92 km/h Running and total Run: 25:10 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:27 (3:15 / km) Error: +3:43 / +0:34 / km Overall prediction: 53:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (40.5 km/h) Run: 25:10 (3:49 / km) Total: 53:29
3 / 7	Jakub Miklencic SVK	+82 s +82 s	G3 / G5	23:36 24:26	55:21	Show details Prediction details: Jakub Miklencic Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +82 s Time: 13:19 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: 0.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.6 s Gap behind: 122.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 24.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 13.28 km/h Running and total Run: 23:36 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:26 (3:42 / km) Error: −0:50 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 55:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:19 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (37.3 km/h) Run: 23:36 (3:35 / km) Total: 55:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 50.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Alejandro Pla Estebanez ESP	+39 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	24:50 23:45	55:23	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Pla Estebanez Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 12:36 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 12.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Gap ahead: 10.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 25.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.34 km/h Running and total Run: 24:50 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:45 (3:36 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 55:23 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:36 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (37.8 km/h) Run: 24:50 (3:46 / km) Total: 55:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Alberto Ferrero ITA	+54 s +45 s	G3 / G4	25:35 25:18	57:20	Show details Prediction details: Alberto Ferrero Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 12:51 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 9.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 9.6 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 24.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.81 km/h Running and total Run: 25:35 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:18 (3:50 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 57:20 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:51 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (37.3 km/h) Run: 25:35 (3:53 / km) Total: 57:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 22.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9	Ondrej Vit CZE	+204 s +197 s	G3 / G7	29:41 24:38	1:01:26	Show details Prediction details: Ondrej Vit Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +204 s Time: 15:21 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +197 s Fehler: 7.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 122.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 23.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 13.72 km/h Running and total Run: 29:41 (4:30 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:38 (3:44 / km) Error: +5:03 / +0:46 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:26 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 15:21 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (37.3 km/h) Run: 29:41 (4:30 / km) Total: 1:01:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 172.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4	Michael Fuchs GER	+64 s +84 s	G3 / G3 correct	31:14 24:57	1:02:59	Show details Prediction details: Michael Fuchs Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 13:01 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +84 s Fehler: -20.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.6 s Gap behind: 18.6 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 25.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 11.73 km/h Running and total Run: 31:14 (4:44 / km) Historical basis: 4:44 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 24:57 (3:47 / km) Error: +6:17 / +0:57 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:59 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:01 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (37.3 km/h) Run: 31:14 (4:44 / km) Total: 1:02:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 31.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10	Manuel Cossu ITA	+50 s +47 s	G3 / G6	31:37 27:14	1:03:22	Show details Prediction details: Manuel Cossu Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 12:47 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 3.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.0 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 22.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 14.70 km/h Running and total Run: 31:37 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:55 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:14 (4:08 / km) Error: +4:23 / +0:40 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:22 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:47 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (37.3 km/h) Run: 31:37 (4:47 / km) Total: 1:03:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 18.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8	Paco Martí Ballester ESP	+39 s +55 s	G2 / G8	39:16 23:18	1:09:49	Show details Prediction details: Paco Martí Ballester Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 7–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 12:36 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -16.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 22.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.51 km/h Running and total Run: 39:16 (5:57 / km) Historical basis: 6:00 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (3:32 / km) Error: +15:58 / +2:25 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:49 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:36 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (37.8 km/h) Run: 39:16 (5:57 / km) Total: 1:09:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:31 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 4.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Roberto Almansa Bauzá ESP	+27 s +40 s	G1 / G4	25:45		Show details Prediction details: Roberto Almansa Bauzá Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 12:24 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -12.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 24.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 16.12 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:45 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:24 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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