Prediction comparison

U23 Women

14.07.2026 Banyoles ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 77/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 374 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.7

Mean swim error43.8 s

Mean bike-speed error16.39 km/h

Correct bike groups1/6

No history1

Within the 80% range14.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Lucía Piñón Pereira ESP	+39 s +7 s	G2 / G4	28:38 29:00	58:32	Show details Prediction details: Lucía Piñón Pereira Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 14:32 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 32.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.7 s Gap behind: 16.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 20.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 18.30 km/h Running and total Run: 28:38 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:00 (4:24 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 58:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:32 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:59 (38.6 km/h) Run: 28:38 (4:20 / km) Total: 58:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:11 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 20.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Mia Padmanabhan GBR	+68 s +11 s	G3 / G3 correct	28:36 25:10	1:01:20	Show details Prediction details: Mia Padmanabhan Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 15:01 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 57.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.3 s Gap behind: 15.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 20.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.11 km/h Running and total Run: 28:36 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:10 (3:49 / km) Error: +3:26 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:20 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:01 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:21 (35.7 km/h) Run: 28:36 (4:20 / km) Total: 1:01:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:11 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 50.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7	Celia Calderón Santamaría ESP	+83 s +34 s	G3 / G6	29:11 27:53	1:01:55	Show details Prediction details: Celia Calderón Santamaría Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +83 s Time: 15:16 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 49.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.0 s Gap behind: 22.8 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 19.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 16.66 km/h Running and total Run: 29:11 (4:25 / km) Historical basis: 4:25 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:53 (4:13 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:55 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 15:16 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:21 (35.7 km/h) Run: 29:11 (4:25 / km) Total: 1:01:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:29 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 47.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2	Elsa Pena Vicente ESP	+15 s +0 s	G1 / G2	34:19 27:51	1:03:15	Show details Prediction details: Elsa Pena Vicente Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 14:08 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 15.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 23.7 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 20.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 18.57 km/h Running and total Run: 34:19 (5:12 / km) Historical basis: 5:12 / km Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:51 (4:13 / km) Error: +6:28 / +0:59 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:08 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (39.3 km/h) Run: 34:19 (5:12 / km) Total: 1:03:15
5 / 6	Katja Krenn AUT	+106 s +46 s	G4 / G5	34:52 29:16	1:12:10	Show details Prediction details: Katja Krenn Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: 15:39 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 60.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.01 km/h Running and total Run: 34:52 (5:17 / km) Historical basis: 5:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Ergebnis Lauf: 29:16 (4:26 / km) Error: +5:36 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 1:12:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:39 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (31.7 km/h) Run: 34:52 (5:17 / km) Total: 1:12:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:11 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 87.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Paula Leupold GER	+0 s +143 s	G0 / G1	28:32		Show details Prediction details: Paula Leupold Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:53 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +143 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 21.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:32 (4:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:53 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Giulia Saiu ITA	+55 s +6 s	G2 / G1	32:20		Show details Prediction details: Giulia Saiu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 14:48 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 49.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.0 s Gap behind: 13.3 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 20.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 17.68 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 32:20 (4:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:48 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:59 (38.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:29 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 19.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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