Prediction comparison

Elite Men

09.05.2026 Porto Santa Margherita ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 98/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 72 früheren Rennen und 1579 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 39.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 25.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 96.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 72 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error11.6

Mean swim error10.7 s

Mean bike-speed error1.35 km/h

Correct bike groups26/64

No history0

Within the 80% range51.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 18	Mateo Vidal FRA	+17 s +20 s	G1 / G2	14:04 16:03	40:50	Show details Prediction details: Mateo Vidal Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 18 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -3.3 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 14:04 (2:56 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:21 / km) Error: −1:59 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 40:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:04 (2:56 / km) Total: 40:50
2 / 8	Baptiste Passemard FRA	+10 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:05 15:55	40:51	Show details Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–11 Top-10 probability: 89 % Result: 8 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 14:05 (2:56 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:19 / km) Error: −1:50 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 40:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:05 (2:56 / km) Total: 40:51
3 / 2	Pablo Isotton FRA	+6 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:13 15:13	40:59	Show details Prediction details: Pablo Isotton Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 8:47 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: -0.5 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h Running and total Run: 14:13 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:10 / km) Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 40:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:13 (2:58 / km) Total: 40:59
4 / 1	Valentin Morlec FRA	+13 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:18 15:05	41:04	Show details Prediction details: Valentin Morlec Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–12 Top-10 probability: 84 % Result: 1 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 0.8 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 14:18 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:09 / km) Error: −0:47 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 41:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:18 (2:59 / km) Total: 41:04
5 / 10	Samuele Angelini ITA	+22 s +13 s	G1 / G2	14:20 15:33	41:06	Show details Prediction details: Samuele Angelini Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–14 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 10 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 8.9 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: 14:20 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:14 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 41:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:20 (2:59 / km) Total: 41:06
6 / 7	Milan Lariviere FRA	+7 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:34 15:52	41:20	Show details Prediction details: Milan Lariviere Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 2–19 Top-10 probability: 70 % Result: 7 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:48 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 1.1 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h Running and total Run: 14:34 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:18 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 41:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:34 (3:02 / km) Total: 41:20
7 / 21	Andrés Prieto Villar ESP	+24 s +9 s	G1 / G2	14:36 16:07	41:22	Show details Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–20 Top-10 probability: 46 % Result: 21 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 14.5 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h Running and total Run: 14:36 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:21 / km) Error: −1:31 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 41:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:36 (3:03 / km) Total: 41:22
8 / 36	Sylvain Fridelance SUI	+23 s +19 s	G1 / G2	14:46 17:07	41:32	Show details Prediction details: Sylvain Fridelance Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–20 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 36 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 3.8 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h Running and total Run: 14:46 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:34 / km) Error: −2:21 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 41:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:46 (3:05 / km) Total: 41:32
9 / 31	Jens Smolders BEL	+36 s +43 s	G2 / G3	14:15 15:50	41:35	Show details Prediction details: Jens Smolders Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–25 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 31 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -7.5 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h Running and total Run: 14:15 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:18 / km) Error: −1:35 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 41:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:15 (2:58 / km) Total: 41:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 10.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 4	Paul Georgenthum FRA	+33 s +22 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:17 15:13	41:37	Show details Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 4–29 Top-10 probability: 48 % Result: 4 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 11.0 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h Running and total Run: 14:17 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:59 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 41:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:17 (2:58 / km) Total: 41:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 6	Ibe Baelde BEL	+32 s +23 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:22 15:15	41:42	Show details Prediction details: Ibe Baelde Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–21 Top-10 probability: 36 % Result: 6 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 8.9 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h Running and total Run: 14:22 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 41:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:22 (3:00 / km) Total: 41:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 6.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5	Zalán Hóbor HUN	+3 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:56 15:41	41:42	Show details Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 3–25 Top-10 probability: 49 % Result: 5 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 8:44 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 3.1 s H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h Running and total Run: 14:56 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 41:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 14:56 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:42
13 / 29	Kjell Arved Brandt GER	+29 s +17 s	G2 / G3	14:34 15:33	41:54	Show details Prediction details: Kjell Arved Brandt Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 7–24 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 29 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 12.4 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 14:34 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:14 / km) Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 41:54 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:34 (3:02 / km) Total: 41:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 34	Nicolo' Astori ITA	+31 s +39 s	G2 / G3	14:37 16:00	41:57	Show details Prediction details: Nicolo' Astori Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 9–26 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 34 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -8.2 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h Running and total Run: 14:37 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:20 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 41:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:37 (3:03 / km) Total: 41:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 5.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24	Jan Semmler GER	+23 s +18 s	G1 / G2	15:17 16:15	42:03	Show details Prediction details: Jan Semmler Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 9–37 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 24 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:23 / km) Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 42:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:03
16 / 17	Carol Popa ROU	+25 s +34 s	G1 / G2	15:17 15:59	42:03	Show details Prediction details: Carol Popa Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–42 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 17 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -9.1 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 96 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 42:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:03
17 / 16	Jan Scheffold GER	+34 s +44 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:47 15:53	42:07	Show details Prediction details: Jan Scheffold Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 13–28 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 16 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -10.5 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 14:47 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:19 / km) Error: −1:06 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 42:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:47 (3:05 / km) Total: 42:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 8.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 45	Hugo Borel FRA	+37 s +47 s	G2 / G3	14:52 16:37	42:12	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Borel Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 8–52 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 45 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -9.6 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 93 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 14:52 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 93 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:28 / km) Error: −1:45 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 42:12 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:52 (3:06 / km) Total: 42:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 12.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 3	Martin Hubner FRA	+41 s +46 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:55 15:07	42:15	Show details Prediction details: Martin Hubner Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 15–51 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 3 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 68 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 14:55 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:09 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 42:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:55 (3:06 / km) Total: 42:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 16 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 22	Julian Piller AUT	+17 s +22 s	G1 / G2	15:29 16:05	42:15	Show details Prediction details: Julian Piller Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 17–35 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 22 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 15:29 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:29 (3:14 / km) Total: 42:15
21 / 25	Simeone Romano ITA	+28 s +22 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:56 16:17	42:16	Show details Prediction details: Simeone Romano Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 11–35 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 25 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 6.1 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h Running and total Run: 14:56 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:21 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 42:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 14:56 (3:07 / km) Total: 42:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 27	Fiorenzo Angelini ITA	+23 s +22 s	G1 / G2	15:35 16:34	42:21	Show details Prediction details: Fiorenzo Angelini Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 18–46 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 27 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 1.0 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h Running and total Run: 15:35 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:27 / km) Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 42:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:35 (3:15 / km) Total: 42:21
23 / 11	Thomas Windischbauer AUT	+15 s +7 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:38 16:00	42:24	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 11–51 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 11 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 8.3 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 73 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 15:38 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 42:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:38 (3:15 / km) Total: 42:24
24 / 35	Achille Besson FRA	+28 s +21 s	G2 / G3	15:07 15:59	42:27	Show details Prediction details: Achille Besson Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 15–32 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 35 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 7.3 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 99 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.26 km/h Running and total Run: 15:07 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:52 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 42:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:07 (3:09 / km) Total: 42:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 50	Zalán Trungel-Nagy HUN	+39 s +37 s	G2 / G3	15:10 17:31	42:30	Show details Prediction details: Zalán Trungel-Nagy Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 23–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: -25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 1.8 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h Running and total Run: 15:10 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:39 / km) Error: −2:21 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 42:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:10 (3:10 / km) Total: 42:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 39	Riccardo Cultore ITA	+38 s +7 s	G2 / G1	15:11 17:44	42:31	Show details Prediction details: Riccardo Cultore Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 23–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 31.0 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 60 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h Running and total Run: 15:11 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:42 / km) Error: −2:33 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 42:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:11 (3:10 / km) Total: 42:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 54	Giovanni Lombardo ITA	+17 s +50 s	G1 / G4	15:46 17:11	42:32	Show details Prediction details: Giovanni Lombardo Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 9–53 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 54 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -33.0 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h Running and total Run: 15:46 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:35 / km) Error: −1:25 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 42:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:46 (3:17 / km) Total: 42:32
28 / 28	Jasper Devos BEL	+28 s +48 s	G2 / G3	15:13 15:38	42:33	Show details Prediction details: Jasper Devos Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 3–43 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 28 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -20.4 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 15:13 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 42:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:13 (3:10 / km) Total: 42:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 2.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 12	Antoine L'hôte SUI	+28 s +8 s	G2 / G1	15:17 16:09	42:37	Show details Prediction details: Antoine L'hôte Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 15–50 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 12 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 20.1 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:52 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 42:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 19	Luis Rühl GER	+29 s +46 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:17 16:01	42:37	Show details Prediction details: Luis Rühl Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 7–48 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 19 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -17.2 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 73 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 42:37 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 20	Niccolò Sancisi ITA	+36 s +37 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:17 16:11	42:37	Show details Prediction details: Niccolò Sancisi Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 18–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -1.4 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 42:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 10.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 32	Niklas Keller AUT	+38 s +45 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:17 16:57	42:37	Show details Prediction details: Niklas Keller Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 13–52 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 32 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -6.6 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:32 / km) Error: −1:40 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 42:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:11 / km) Total: 42:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 13	Jelle Kaindl AUT	+18 s +23 s	G1 / G2	15:54 15:53	42:40	Show details Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 13–57 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 13 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 8:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: -4.8 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.03 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:19 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 42:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Total: 42:40
34 / 51	Elias Leimer SUI	+32 s +45 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:22 18:34	42:42	Show details Prediction details: Elias Leimer Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 6–53 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 51 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -13.2 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 15:22 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:52 / km) Error: −3:12 / −0:40 / km Overall prediction: 42:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:22 (3:12 / km) Total: 42:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 6.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 48	Aurelien Carre LUX	+38 s +42 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:23 18:25	42:43	Show details Prediction details: Aurelien Carre Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 23–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -3.9 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 15:23 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:50 / km) Error: −3:02 / −0:38 / km Overall prediction: 42:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:23 (3:12 / km) Total: 42:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 47	Edoardo Del Carlo ITA	+29 s +40 s	G2 / G3	15:25 17:13	42:45	Show details Prediction details: Edoardo Del Carlo Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 18–40 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 47 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -11.4 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h Running and total Run: 15:25 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:35 / km) Error: −1:48 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 42:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:25 (3:13 / km) Total: 42:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 9	Eric Diener GER	+30 s +45 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:25 15:39	42:45	Show details Prediction details: Eric Diener Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 13–51 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 9 Deviation: 28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -15.5 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h Running and total Run: 15:25 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 42:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:25 (3:13 / km) Total: 42:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 15	Niels Van Lanen NED	+37 s +39 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:27 16:00	42:47	Show details Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 30–43 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: 23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h Running and total Run: 15:27 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:27 (3:13 / km) Total: 42:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 12 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 26	Lehel Hóbor HUN	+17 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:03 16:43	42:49	Show details Prediction details: Lehel Hóbor Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 27–50 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 26 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 16.3 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h Running and total Run: 16:03 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:29 / km) Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 42:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 16:03 (3:21 / km) Total: 42:49
40 / 14	Andrea Balestreri ITA	+38 s +49 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:34 15:55	42:54	Show details Prediction details: Andrea Balestreri Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 16–56 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 14 Deviation: 26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -11.0 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 95 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:14 / km) Total: 42:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 61	Mikita Katsianeu BLR	+32 s +47 s	G2 / G7	15:38 17:18	42:58	Show details Prediction details: Mikita Katsianeu Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 21–53 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -14.6 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.92 km/h Running and total Run: 15:38 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:36 / km) Error: −1:40 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 42:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:38 (3:16 / km) Total: 42:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 7.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 46	Gabriel Barac CRO	+27 s +48 s	G2 / G3	15:39 16:39	42:59	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Barac Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 20–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -21.3 s H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:28 / km) Error: −1:00 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 42:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:16 / km) Total: 42:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 1.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 33	Jan Bader AUT	+27 s +49 s	G2 / G3	15:42 16:00	43:02	Show details Prediction details: Jan Bader Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 28–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -21.6 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:16 / km) Total: 43:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 2.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 49	Jan Alb AUT	+40 s +56 s	G2 / G3	15:46 17:24	43:06	Show details Prediction details: Jan Alb Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 35–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 49 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -16.4 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h Running and total Run: 15:46 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:38 / km) Error: −1:38 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 43:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:46 (3:17 / km) Total: 43:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 14.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 40	András Medvegy HUN	+44 s +52 s	G2 / G3	15:49 16:24	43:09	Show details Prediction details: András Medvegy Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 31–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -8.0 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 43:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:18 / km) Total: 43:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 55	Severin Schwarz SUI	+13 s +44 s	G1 / G3	16:23 18:09	43:09	Show details Prediction details: Severin Schwarz Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 30–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -30.7 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 73 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:23 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:47 / km) Error: −1:46 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 43:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 16:23 (3:25 / km) Total: 43:09
47 / 23	Samuel Künz AUT	+25 s +14 s	G1 / G2	16:23 16:11	43:09	Show details Prediction details: Samuel Künz Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 26–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 10.5 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 68 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h Running and total Run: 16:23 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:22 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 43:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 16:23 (3:25 / km) Total: 43:09
48 / 43	Giovanni Pavanello ITA	+29 s +46 s	G2 / G3	15:54 16:37	43:14	Show details Prediction details: Giovanni Pavanello Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 11–61 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 43 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -16.9 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:28 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Total: 43:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 37	David Korous CZE	+44 s +52 s	G2 / G3	15:54 16:09	43:14	Show details Prediction details: David Korous Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 42–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -7.9 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 5.5 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 43:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:19 / km) Total: 43:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 60	Ilio Kopriva BEL	+27 s +13 s	G2 / G3	15:57 20:17	43:17	Show details Prediction details: Ilio Kopriva Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 13–56 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 60 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:57 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 11 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (4:14 / km) Error: −4:20 / −0:54 / km Overall prediction: 43:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:57 (3:19 / km) Total: 43:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 41	Quentin Pennone SUI	+35 s +46 s	G2 / G3	16:01 16:32	43:21	Show details Prediction details: Quentin Pennone Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 38–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -11.1 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h Running and total Run: 16:01 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:27 / km) Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:01 (3:20 / km) Total: 43:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 9.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 59	Jan Peterka SLO	+10 s +36 s	G1 / G5	16:36 18:02	43:22	Show details Prediction details: Jan Peterka Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 39–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -25.7 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 97 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (20 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 44.2 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.06 km/h Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 95 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:26 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 43:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:21 (44.2 km/h) Run: 16:36 (3:27 / km) Total: 43:22
53 / 44	Noah Künz AUT	+37 s +44 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:09 17:32	43:29	Show details Prediction details: Noah Künz Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 42–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -7.4 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h Running and total Run: 16:09 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:39 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 43:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:09 (3:22 / km) Total: 43:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 57	Lukas Kurtenbach GER	+31 s +42 s	G2 / G3	16:10 19:02	43:30	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Kurtenbach Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 39–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 57 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -11.5 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:10 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:58 / km) Error: −2:52 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 43:30 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:10 (3:22 / km) Total: 43:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 5.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 62	Boris Andreev BUL	+29 s +49 s	G2 / G7	16:21 18:16	43:41	Show details Prediction details: Boris Andreev Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 31–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 62 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -20.0 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:21 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:48 / km) Error: −1:55 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 43:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:21 (3:24 / km) Total: 43:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 63	Olaf Jan Bosscher NED	+38 s +54 s	G2 / G6	16:22 18:58	43:42	Show details Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 26–62 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 63 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -15.9 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.13 km/h Running and total Run: 16:22 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:57 / km) Error: −2:36 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: 43:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:22 (3:25 / km) Total: 43:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 53	Daniil Babanschi MDA	+28 s +19 s	G2 / G3	16:30 17:57	43:50	Show details Prediction details: Daniil Babanschi Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 41–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 9.4 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h Running and total Run: 16:30 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 43:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:30 (3:26 / km) Total: 43:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 3.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 38	Rick Van der Knaap NED	+55 s +45 s	G3 / G3 correct	15:04 16:18	44:08	Show details Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 26–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h Running and total Run: 15:04 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (41.4 km/h) Run: 15:04 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 29.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 30	Marco Balestreri ITA	+39 s +35 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:50 16:41	44:10	Show details Prediction details: Marco Balestreri Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 45–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: 29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 4.2 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (38 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h Running and total Run: 16:50 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 44:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:36 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:50 (3:30 / km) Total: 44:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 14.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 64	Roel Kwaaitaal NED	+67 s +53 s	G4 / G7	15:44 20:50	45:38	Show details Prediction details: Roel Kwaaitaal Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 44–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 64 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 13.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 51 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 10.2 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 7 (3 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h Running and total Run: 15:44 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:50 (4:20 / km) Error: −5:06 / −1:04 / km Overall prediction: 45:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (40.5 km/h) Run: 15:44 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 41.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 56	Filippo Lisi ITA	+56 s +49 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:39 18:51	45:43	Show details Prediction details: Filippo Lisi Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 59–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: 7.4 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 10.2 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h Running and total Run: 16:39 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:56 / km) Error: −2:12 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 45:43 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:39 (3:28 / km) Total: 45:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 31.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 42	Mathys Bocquet IRL	+50 s +49 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:47 16:31	45:51	Show details Prediction details: Mathys Bocquet Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 54–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: 0.6 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 97 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 5.5 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:47 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 70 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:47 (3:30 / km) Total: 45:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 24.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 58	Fabio Bruschi ITA	+53 s +48 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:11 19:41	46:15	Show details Prediction details: Fabio Bruschi Placement Prediction: 63 80% range: 56–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.12 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (4:06 / km) Error: −2:30 / −0:31 / km Overall prediction: 46:15 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (41.4 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:35 / km) Total: 46:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 28.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 52	Matteo Radina SUI	+69 s +52 s	G4 / G3	16:30 17:58	46:24	Show details Prediction details: Matteo Radina Placement Prediction: 64 80% range: 52–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 16.7 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (24 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h Running and total Run: 16:30 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:28 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 46:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (40.5 km/h) Run: 16:30 (3:26 / km) Total: 46:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 43.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling