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Elite Men

19.06.2026 Schwarzsee Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbühel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 75/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 78.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.5 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error12.7
Mean swim error8.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.74 km/h
Correct bike groups19/55
No history1
Within the 80% range38.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 18 Thomas Rivet
FRA
+14 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:23
9:30
 24:03
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Rivet

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -15.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:23 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.60 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 24:03
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:23 (2:48 / km)
Total: 24:03
2 / 24 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+27 s
+35 s
G1 / G3
 8:28
9:08
 24:08
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:28 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:08 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 24:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:28 (2:49 / km)
Total: 24:08
3 / 42 Bruno Krumbeck
GER
+13 s
+33 s
G1 / G6
 8:31
10:12
 24:11
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Krumbeck

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -39

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -20.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:31 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 2.10 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 24:11
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:31 (2:50 / km)
Total: 24:11
4 / 7 Justus Töpper
GER
+21 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:44
9:00
 24:24
Show details
Prediction details: Justus Töpper

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:44 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 24:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:44 (2:55 / km)
Total: 24:24
5 / 12 Andrea Balestreri
ITA
+24 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:48
9:17
 24:28
Show details
Prediction details: Andrea Balestreri

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–27
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 24:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:08 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Total: 24:28
6 / 4 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+18 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:52
8:49
 24:32
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 24:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Total: 24:32
7 / 9 Raf De Dobbelaere
BEL
+19 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:53
8:59
 24:33
Show details
Prediction details: Raf De Dobbelaere

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 24:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Total: 24:33
8 / 13 Fabian Schönke
GER
+21 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:59
9:20
 24:39
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 24:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 24:39
9 / 26 Kamil Kulik
POL
+25 s
+37 s
G1 / G3
 9:00
9:24
 24:40
Show details
Prediction details: Kamil Kulik

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -12.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 24:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 24:40
10 / 6 Jan Diener
GER
+20 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:03
9:00
 24:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–27
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 24:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 24:43
11 / 21 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+30 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 8:49
9:38
 24:53
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:38 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 24:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:34 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Total: 24:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Luis Rühl
GER
+20 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:13
9:24
 24:53
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Rühl

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -4.4 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:13 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 24:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:13 (3:04 / km)
Total: 24:53
13 / 10 Cis Huyghe
BEL
+28 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:18
9:04
 24:58
Show details
Prediction details: Cis Huyghe

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 24:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Total: 24:58
14 / 2 Fynn Batkin
GBR
+30 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 8:55
8:46
 24:59
Show details
Prediction details: Fynn Batkin

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 5–27
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:46 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 24:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:34 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 24:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 1 Eric Diener
GER
+27 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:22
8:48
 25:02
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–39
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 25:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:02
16 / 51 Benjamin Airey
NZL
+9 s
+17 s
G1 / G5
 9:23
11:31
 25:03
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Airey

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -7.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:31 (3:50 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 25:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Total: 25:03
17 / 32 Till Krajenski
GER
+14 s
+18 s
G1 / G5
 9:30
9:48
 25:10
Show details
Prediction details: Till Krajenski

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–23
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:10
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Total: 25:10
18 / 36 Peter Denteneer
BEL
+19 s
+36 s
G1 / G6
 9:32
9:42
 25:12
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Denteneer

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -17.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:42 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:12
19 / 33 Jonathan Oakey
IRL
+9 s
+34 s
G1 / G4
 9:34
10:10
 25:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Oakey

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 11–27
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -24.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:10 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 25:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:14
20 / 35 Jakub Suchan
POL
+25 s
+24 s
G1 / G5
 9:34
9:58
 25:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Suchan

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:14
21 / 52 Neal Van Vaerenbergh
BEL
+43 s
+50 s
G3 / G9
 9:06
10:29
 25:15
Show details
Prediction details: Neal Van Vaerenbergh

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–37
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 6:27
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 25:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:27 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 14.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 27 Leon Vollstedt
GER
+23 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:36
10:30
 25:16
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Vollstedt

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 15–33
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.22 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 25:16
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Total: 25:16
23 / 37 Henning Scholl
GER
+16 s
+30 s
G1 / G6
 9:37
9:47
 25:17
Show details
Prediction details: Henning Scholl

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -13.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:37 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.22 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:17
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:37 (3:12 / km)
Total: 25:17
24 / 19 Samuel Künz
AUT
+16 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:39
9:32
 25:19
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Künz

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–28
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 25:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Total: 25:19
25 / 8 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+14 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:44
8:59
 25:24
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 8–39
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 25:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 25:24
26 / 3 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+6 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:50
8:46
 25:30
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 3–45
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 5:50
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:46 (2:55 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 25:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:50 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Total: 25:30
27 / 29 Reece Harris
AUS
+22 s
+39 s
G1 / G8
 9:53
9:33
 25:33
Show details
Prediction details: Reece Harris

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 19–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -16.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 25:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Total: 25:33
28 / 44 Giovanni Pavanello
ITA
+18 s
+25 s
G1 / G6
 9:54
10:34
 25:34
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanni Pavanello

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 13–39
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 25:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Total: 25:34
29 / 47 Jakob Meier
AUT
+35 s
+39 s
G3 / G7
 9:28
10:36
 25:37
Show details
Prediction details: Jakob Meier

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 16–41
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:28 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 1.54 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 25:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:28 (3:09 / km)
Total: 25:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 17 Caleb Wagener
NZL
+21 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:02
9:33
 25:42
Show details
Prediction details: Caleb Wagener

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 25:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Total: 25:42
31 / 14 Jan Bader
AUT
+35 s
+7 s
G3 / G1
 9:34
9:18
 25:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 18–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 27.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 25:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 43 Domen Bojanc
SLO
+25 s
+38 s
G1 / G7
 10:04
10:05
 25:44
Show details
Prediction details: Domen Bojanc

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -13.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:04 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:04 (3:21 / km)
Total: 25:44
33 / 5 Jelle Kaindl
AUT
+14 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:05
8:52
 25:45
Show details
Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 25–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 25:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Total: 25:45
34 / 23 Roy Baron
ISR
+16 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:11
9:53
 25:51
Show details
Prediction details: Roy Baron

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 28–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Total: 25:51
35 / 54 Emiliano Tassinari
ITA
+40 s
+46 s
G3 / G10
 9:43
10:39
 25:52
Show details
Prediction details: Emiliano Tassinari

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 30–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 6:24
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:43 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 25:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:24 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:43 (3:14 / km)
Total: 25:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 30 Michael Ziegler
SUI
+25 s
+28 s
G1 / G7
 10:12
9:48
 25:52
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Ziegler

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 32–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Total: 25:52
37 / 49 Moritz Meier
AUT
+40 s
+42 s
G3 / G7
 9:45
10:40
 25:54
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Meier

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 18–48
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 6:24
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 25:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:24 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Total: 25:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 20 Lawrence Martindale
GBR
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:15
9:35
 25:55
Show details
Prediction details: Lawrence Martindale

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 20–45
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:15 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 25:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 10:15 (3:25 / km)
Total: 25:55
39 / 28 Brody Kapeller
AUT
+30 s
+32 s
G2 / G3
 9:52
9:51
 25:56
Show details
Prediction details: Brody Kapeller

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 25–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:51 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:34 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Total: 25:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 50 Tymon Horsten
POL
+43 s
+45 s
G3 / G7
 9:50
10:52
 25:59
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 30–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 6:27
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:52 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 25:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:27 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Total: 25:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 31 Noah Künz
AUT
+35 s
+24 s
G3 / G4
 9:54
9:58
 26:03
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 23–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 26:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Total: 26:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 22 Christian Ache
GER
+37 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 9:59
9:12
 26:08
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Ache

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 33–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 6:21
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:59 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:12 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 26:08
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:21 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 9:59 (3:20 / km)
Total: 26:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 41 Niklas Keller
AUT
+35 s
+20 s
G3 / G5
 10:02
10:22
 26:11
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 32–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:22 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 26:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Total: 26:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 39 Graham Hummel
USA
+38 s
+37 s
G3 / G6
 10:26
9:46
 26:35
Show details
Prediction details: Graham Hummel

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 39–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 0.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 26:35
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:22 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 26:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 25 Davide Menichelli
ITA
+47 s
+35 s
G4 / G3
 8:49
9:08
 26:42
Show details
Prediction details: Davide Menichelli

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 6–43
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 6:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:08 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 26:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:58 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Total: 26:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
46 / 45 Jonas Hauser
AUT
+38 s
+31 s
G3 / G7
 10:36
10:17
 26:45
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 43–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 26:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:22 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Total: 26:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 10.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 40 Jack Latham
AUS
+30 s
+36 s
G2 / G7
 10:56
9:39
 27:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Latham

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 44–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 27:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:34 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Total: 27:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 46 Leon Dahlin
SWE
+55 s
+51 s
G4 / G7
 9:45
10:23
 27:38
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Dahlin

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 30–50
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 6:39
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 24.7 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:23 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 27:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:39 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:58 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 53 Eyal Chen
ISR
+80 s
+48 s
G5 / G10
 10:03
10:28
 28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Eyal Chen

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 49–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 7:04
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 31.5 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.83 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 24.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:03 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:28 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 28:17
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:04 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:55 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 10:03 (3:21 / km)
Total: 28:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 51.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 57 Tommaso Giubilei
ITA
+52 s
+60 s
G4 / G12
 10:38
11:45
 28:31
Show details
Prediction details: Tommaso Giubilei

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 45–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 57
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 6:36
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -8.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:38 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:45 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 28:31
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:36 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:58 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 10:38 (3:33 / km)
Total: 28:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 23.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 48 Norwin Torge Tiemann
GER
+49 s
+41 s
G4 / G7
 10:39
10:33
 28:32
Show details
Prediction details: Norwin Torge Tiemann

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 46–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 6:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 28:32
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:58 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Total: 28:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 21 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 15 Julian Piller
AUT
+16 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		12:55
9:24
 28:35
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Piller

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 51–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (22 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:55 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Error: +3:31 / +1:10 / km
Overall prediction: 28:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 12:55 (4:18 / km)
Total: 28:35
53 / 34 Edoardo Del Carlo
ITA
+29 s
+25 s
G2 / G5
 12:59
9:47
 29:03
Show details
Prediction details: Edoardo Del Carlo

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 52–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:59 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: +3:12 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 29:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:34 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 12:59 (4:20 / km)
Total: 29:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 55 Fabio Sattler
AUT
+47 s
+41 s
G4 / G7
 12:28
12:29
 30:21
Show details
Prediction details: Fabio Sattler

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 51–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 6:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:28 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:29 (4:10 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 30:21
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:58 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 12:28 (4:09 / km)
Total: 30:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 38 Elias Knoll
GER
+28 s
+36 s
G1 / G7
 17:30
9:34
 33:10
Show details
Prediction details: Elias Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 55–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (33 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (5:50 / km)
Historical basis: 5:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Error: +7:56 / +2:39 / km
Overall prediction: 33:10
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:12 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (5:50 / km)
Total: 33:10
0 / 11 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+14 s
 Bike DNF 8:48
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 56–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 56 Julian Bernhard
AUT
+0 s
+51 s
G0 / G11
11:36
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Bernhard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 57–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:44
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:36 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:44 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.