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Semifinal 1 Elite Men

19.06.2026 Schwarzsee Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbühel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 76/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.1
Mean swim error9.8 s
Mean bike-speed error3.19 km/h
Correct bike groups8/20
No history0
Within the 80% range60.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+26 s
+38 s
G1 / G2
 8:26
9:16
 24:18
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:26 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:16 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 24:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 8:26 (2:49 / km)
Total: 24:18
2 / 4 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+28 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:49
9:37
 24:41
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:37 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 24:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Total: 24:41
3 / 6 Fynn Batkin
GBR
+29 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:52
9:48
 24:44
Show details
Prediction details: Fynn Batkin

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 6:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 24:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Total: 24:44
4 / 3 Luis Rühl
GER
+18 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:11
9:32
 25:03
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Rühl

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:11 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 25:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:11 (3:04 / km)
Total: 25:03
5 / 11 Till Krajenski
GER
+13 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 9:24
9:48
 25:16
Show details
Prediction details: Till Krajenski

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 25:16
6 / 12 Jakub Suchan
POL
+23 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 9:31
9:58
 25:23
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Suchan

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:31 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 25:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:31 (3:10 / km)
Total: 25:23
7 / 10 Leon Vollstedt
GER
+21 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:33
10:04
 25:25
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Vollstedt

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:04 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 25:25
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:25
8 / 5 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:39
9:40
 25:31
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:40 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Total: 25:31
9 / 8 Brody Kapeller
AUT
+28 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:49
9:49
 25:41
Show details
Prediction details: Brody Kapeller

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 12.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Total: 25:41
10 / 15 Giovanni Pavanello
ITA
+17 s
+25 s
G1 / G3
 9:54
10:34
 25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanni Pavanello

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 25:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Total: 25:46
11 / 17 Jakob Meier
AUT
+33 s
+39 s
G2 / G4
 9:29
10:36
 25:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jakob Meier

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -5.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.66 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 25:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:22 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:49 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Total: 25:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:21
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 14 Domen Bojanc
SLO
+23 s
+38 s
G1 / G4
 10:01
10:05
 25:53
Show details
Prediction details: Domen Bojanc

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:01 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 25:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 10:01 (3:20 / km)
Total: 25:53
13 / 9 Roy Baron
ISR
+15 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:09
9:54
 26:01
Show details
Prediction details: Roy Baron

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:09 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 26:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 10:09 (3:23 / km)
Total: 26:01
14 / 1 Caleb Wagener
NZL
+21 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:11
9:35
 26:03
Show details
Prediction details: Caleb Wagener

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 26:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Total: 26:03
15 / 2 Davide Menichelli
ITA
+46 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 8:39
9:32
 26:29
Show details
Prediction details: Davide Menichelli

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 6:35
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 27.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:39 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 26:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:35 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:57 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 8:39 (2:53 / km)
Total: 26:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13 Jack Latham
AUS
+27 s
+36 s
G1 / G4
 10:56
9:39
 26:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Latham

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:16
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.58 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.43 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 26:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:16 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Total: 26:48
17 / 16 Leon Dahlin
SWE
+53 s
+51 s
G3 / G4
 9:44
10:23
 27:34
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Dahlin

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 6:42
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:23 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 27:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:42 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:57 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:21
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Tommaso Giubilei
ITA
+51 s
+60 s
G3 / G5
 10:35
11:45
 28:25
Show details
Prediction details: Tommaso Giubilei

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 6:40
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -9.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:35 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:45 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 28:25
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:40 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:57 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 10:35 (3:32 / km)
Total: 28:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 18 Norwin Torge Tiemann
GER
+48 s
+41 s
G3 / G4
 10:41
10:33
 28:31
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Prediction details: Norwin Torge Tiemann

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 6:37
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.57 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:41 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 28:31
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:37 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:57 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 10:41 (3:34 / km)
Total: 28:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Fabio Sattler
AUT
+45 s
+41 s
G3 / G4
 12:18
12:29
 30:08
Show details
Prediction details: Fabio Sattler

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.69 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:29 (4:10 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 30:08
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:34 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:57 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km)
Total: 30:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.