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Semifinal 2 Elite Men

19.06.2026 Schwarzsee Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbühel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.4 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error12.6 s
Mean bike-speed error3.61 km/h
Correct bike groups7/17
No history0
Within the 80% range38.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 16 Bruno Krumbeck
GER
+17 s
+22 s
G1 / G3
 8:23
10:12
 24:06
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Krumbeck

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:23 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:49 / −0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 24:06
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 8:23 (2:48 / km)
Total: 24:06
2 / 1 Justus Töpper
GER
+21 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:47
9:15
 24:30
Show details
Prediction details: Justus Töpper

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:47 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 1.53 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 24:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 8:47 (2:56 / km)
Total: 24:30
3 / 2 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+14 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:50
9:26
 24:33
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:50 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:26 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 24:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 8:50 (2:57 / km)
Total: 24:33
4 / 6 Kamil Kulik
POL
+24 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 9:00
9:22
 24:43
Show details
Prediction details: Kamil Kulik

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 24:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 24:43
5 / 4 Cis Huyghe
BEL
+28 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 9:20
9:15
 25:03
Show details
Prediction details: Cis Huyghe

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 25:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:03
6 / 12 Jonathan Oakey
IRL
+9 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 9:33
10:10
 25:16
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Oakey

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 5:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -14.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:10 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 25:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:16
7 / 13 Peter Denteneer
BEL
+18 s
+25 s
G1 / G3
 9:33
9:42
 25:16
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Denteneer

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -6.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:42 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Total: 25:16
8 / 14 Henning Scholl
GER
+16 s
+19 s
G1 / G3
 9:36
9:47
 25:19
Show details
Prediction details: Henning Scholl

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -3.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:19
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Total: 25:19
9 / 7 Samuel Künz
AUT
+16 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 9:41
9:32
 25:24
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Künz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Total: 25:24
10 / 9 Jan Bader
AUT
+35 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:36
9:46
 25:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:20
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:20 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:33 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km)
Total: 25:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 3 Jelle Kaindl
AUT
+14 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:05
9:30
 25:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 25:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 10:05 (3:22 / km)
Total: 25:48
12 / 18 Emiliano Tassinari
ITA
+40 s
+35 s
G2 / G4
 9:44
10:39
 25:56
Show details
Prediction details: Emiliano Tassinari

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 6:25
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 39.6 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 25:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:25 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:33 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 25:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 11 Noah Künz
AUT
+35 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:56
9:58
 26:08
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:20
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:56 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 26:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:20 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:33 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 9:56 (3:19 / km)
Total: 26:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 3.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 5 Christian Ache
GER
+37 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:56
9:22
 26:08
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Ache

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:56 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 26:08
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:22 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:33 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 9:56 (3:19 / km)
Total: 26:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Graham Hummel
USA
+38 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 10:26
9:46
 26:38
Show details
Prediction details: Graham Hummel

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:23
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 11.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 26:38
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:23 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:33 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 26:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Eyal Chen
ISR
+79 s
+37 s
G3 / G4
 10:03
10:28
 28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Eyal Chen

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 7:04
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 42.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.97 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:03 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:28 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 28:17
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:04 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:55 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 10:03 (3:21 / km)
Total: 28:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:16
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 47.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Julian Piller
AUT
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		12:55
9:59
 28:38
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Piller

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:55 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:59 (3:20 / km)
Error: +2:56 / +0:59 / km
Overall prediction: 28:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:16 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 12:55 (4:18 / km)
Total: 28:38
0 / 10 Michael Ziegler
SUI
+25 s
 Bike DNF 10:12
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Ziegler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.