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Semifinal 3 Elite Men

19.06.2026 Schwarzsee Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbühel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 80/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 450 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 89.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.7 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error7.4 s
Mean bike-speed error3.34 km/h
Correct bike groups3/18
No history1
Within the 80% range63.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 9 Thomas Rivet
FRA
+18 s
+25 s
G2 / G3
 8:25
9:23
 24:24
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Rivet

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:25 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.97 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 24:24
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 8:25 (2:48 / km)
Total: 24:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 8 Andrea Balestreri
ITA
+22 s
+25 s
G2 / G3
 8:49
9:25
 24:48
Show details
Prediction details: Andrea Balestreri

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:25 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 24:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Total: 24:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+17 s
+24 s
G2 / G3
 8:52
9:23
 24:51
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 24:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Total: 24:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Raf De Dobbelaere
BEL
+17 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 8:54
9:55
 24:53
Show details
Prediction details: Raf De Dobbelaere

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:54 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:55 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 24:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 8:54 (2:58 / km)
Total: 24:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Fabian Schönke
GER
+20 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:59
9:32
 24:58
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 24:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 24:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3 Jan Diener
GER
+19 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 9:04
9:29
 25:03
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:08 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 17 Benjamin Airey
NZL
+12 s
+15 s
G2 / G3
 9:21
11:31
 25:20
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Airey

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:21 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:31 (3:50 / km)
Error: −2:10 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 25:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 9:21 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Eric Diener
GER
+26 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 9:23
9:23
 25:22
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Total: 25:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 18 Neal Van Vaerenbergh
BEL
+41 s
+48 s
G3 / G5
 9:07
10:29
 25:27
Show details
Prediction details: Neal Van Vaerenbergh

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -6.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:07 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 25:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 9:07 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 1 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+3 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:46
9:13
 25:35
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 5:52
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:13 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 25:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:52 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:45 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Total: 25:35
11 / 10 Reece Harris
AUS
+20 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 9:50
9:32
 25:49
Show details
Prediction details: Reece Harris

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -5.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Total: 25:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 Moritz Meier
AUT
+38 s
+40 s
G3 / G4
 9:42
10:40
 26:02
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Meier

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:27
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:42 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 26:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:27 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 9:42 (3:14 / km)
Total: 26:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 5 Lawrence Martindale
GBR
+10 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 10:14
10:03
 26:13
Show details
Prediction details: Lawrence Martindale

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 5:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:14 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:03 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 26:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 10:14 (3:25 / km)
Total: 26:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 16 Tymon Horsten
POL
+41 s
+43 s
G3 / G4
 9:57
10:52
 26:17
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -1.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:57 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 2.20 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:52 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 26:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 9:57 (3:19 / km)
Total: 26:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Niklas Keller
AUT
+34 s
+18 s
G3 / G3
correct 		10:02
10:22
 26:22
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 6:23
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:22 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 26:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:23 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Total: 26:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 26.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 14 Jonas Hauser
AUT
+37 s
+29 s
G3 / G4
 10:36
10:17
 26:56
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 6:26
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 26:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:26 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Total: 26:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 11 Edoardo Del Carlo
ITA
+27 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 12:59
9:47
 28:58
Show details
Prediction details: Edoardo Del Carlo

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:16
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:59 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: +3:12 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:16 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 12:59 (4:20 / km)
Total: 28:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 19.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12 Elias Knoll
GER
+26 s
+34 s
G2 / G4
 17:30
9:34
 33:29
Show details
Prediction details: Elias Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -7.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (5:50 / km)
Historical basis: 5:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:34 (3:11 / km)
Error: +7:56 / +2:39 / km
Overall prediction: 33:29
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:32 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (5:50 / km)
Total: 33:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 18.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Julian Bernhard
AUT
+0 s
+49 s
G0 / G6
11:36
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Bernhard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:49
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:36 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:49 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.