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Elite Men

28.03.2026 Quarteira POR
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Cup Quarteira

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 92/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 61 früheren Rennen und 1699 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 45.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 28.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 61 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error12.2
Mean swim error22.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.46 km/h
Correct bike groups10/64
No history0
Within the 80% range51.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Vasco Vilaca
POR
+39 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		29:51
29:48
 1:25:58
Show details
Prediction details: Vasco Vilaca

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 17:22
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:51 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:48 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:22 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 29:51 (2:59 / km)
Total: 1:25:58
2 / 2 João Nuno Batista
POR
+27 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		29:58
30:08
 1:26:05
Show details
Prediction details: João Nuno Batista

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:10
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 20.7 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:08 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:10 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 29:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 1:26:05
3 / 11 Nils Serre Gehri
FRA
+35 s
+41 s
G1 / G3
 30:36
30:19
 1:26:43
Show details
Prediction details: Nils Serre Gehri

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–16
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 17:18
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:36 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:19 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:18 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 30:36 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:26:43
4 / 6 Vetle Bergsvik Thorn
NOR
+40 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 30:37
29:42
 1:26:44
Show details
Prediction details: Vetle Bergsvik Thorn

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 17:23
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:42 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:23 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:26:44
5 / 15 Mateo Vidal
FRA
+13 s
+53 s
G1 / G3
 30:41
30:30
 1:26:48
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 16:56
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -40.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 1.14 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.6 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:56 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:26:48
6 / 13 Solomon Okrafo-Smart
GBR
+47 s
+46 s
G1 / G3
 30:56
30:30
 1:27:03
Show details
Prediction details: Solomon Okrafo-Smart

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:56 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 30:56 (3:06 / km)
Total: 1:27:03
7 / 40 Antonio Serrat Seoane
ESP
+47 s
+50 s
G1 / G4
 31:12
32:01
 1:27:19
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Serrat Seoane

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:12 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 175 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:12 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:27:19
8 / 20 Thomas Hansmaennel
FRA
+42 s
+76 s
G1 / G4
 31:23
30:29
 1:27:30
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Hansmaennel

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -34.1 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:29 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:27:30
9 / 26 Sergiy Polikarpenko
ITA
+32 s
+55 s
G1 / G4
 31:40
30:45
 1:27:47
Show details
Prediction details: Sergiy Polikarpenko

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -23.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:45 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:27:47
10 / 7 Seth Rider
USA
+30 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:44
31:23
 1:27:51
Show details
Prediction details: Seth Rider

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:13 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:27:51
11 / 12 Pablo Isotton
FRA
+3 s
+18 s
G1 / G3
 31:54
30:21
 1:28:01
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Isotton

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 16:46
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -15.0 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.6 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:21 (3:02 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:46 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:28:01
12 / 8 Miguel Tiago Silva
POR
+15 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:54
31:37
 1:28:01
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Tiago Silva

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 1–37
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 16:58
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:58 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:28:01
13 / 10 Louis Vitiello
FRA
+57 s
+31 s
G2 / G3
 31:35
30:16
 1:28:09
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Vitiello

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–30
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 26.3 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:16 (3:02 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:28:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 63 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+37 s
+38 s
G1 / G9
 32:06
33:03
 1:28:13
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 63
Deviation: -49

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -1.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:03 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:20 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:28:13
15 / 16 Adam Fouchal
FRA
+59 s
+48 s
G2 / G3
 31:42
30:38
 1:28:16
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Fouchal

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:42 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:38 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 31:42 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:28:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
16 / 4 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+31 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:10
30:59
 1:28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 17:14
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 25.7 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:59 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:14 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:28:17
17 / 35 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+58 s
+53 s
G2 / G4
 31:45
31:31
 1:28:19
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–36
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:31 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:28:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 3 Márk Dévay
HUN
+63 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 31:45
30:44
 1:28:19
Show details
Prediction details: Márk Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 17:46
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 63.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:44 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:46 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:28:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
19 / 53 Hector Tolsa Garcia
ESP
+46 s
+111 s
G1 / G7
 32:32
32:26
 1:28:39
Show details
Prediction details: Hector Tolsa Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–40
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 17:29
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: -64.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:32 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:29 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:32 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:28:39
20 / 27 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+57 s
+76 s
G2 / G4
 32:15
30:52
 1:28:49
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 13–34
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -19.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:15 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:52 (3:05 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 32:15 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:28:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
21 / 28 Raf De Dobbelaere
BEL
+58 s
+78 s
G2 / G4
 32:24
31:03
 1:28:58
Show details
Prediction details: Raf De Dobbelaere

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 10–41
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: -20.2 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:24 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:03 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 32:24 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:28:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Joris Basslé
BEL
+40 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:05
32:33
 1:29:12
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Basslé

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 6–50
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 17:23
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 30.3 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:05 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:23 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:05 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:12
23 / 46 Simeone Romano
ITA
+48 s
+73 s
G1 / G4
 33:10
33:02
 1:29:17
Show details
Prediction details: Simeone Romano

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -24.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:02 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:17
24 / 22 Till Kramp
GER
+47 s
+13 s
G1 / G3
 33:11
31:19
 1:29:18
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 23–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 34.1 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:11 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:19 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:52 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:11 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:18
25 / 36 Ben Cumberland
GBR
+41 s
+50 s
G1 / G4
 33:13
31:37
 1:29:20
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Cumberland

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–38
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 17:24
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -8.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:13 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:24 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:13 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:20
26 / 17 Lukas Pertl
AUT
+82 s
+51 s
G3 / G3
correct 		31:15
30:35
 1:29:21
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 13–45
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 30.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:15 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:35 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 31:15 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:29:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 33.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 34 Andreas Nikolajsen
DEN
+42 s
+17 s
G1 / G3
 33:17
32:22
 1:29:24
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 21–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 24.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:22 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:29:24
28 / 9 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+32 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:20
31:50
 1:29:27
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 6–48
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:50 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:30 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:29:27
29 / 32 Deri McCluskey
GBR
+35 s
+84 s
G1 / G4
 33:28
31:13
 1:29:35
Show details
Prediction details: Deri McCluskey

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 11–44
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 17:18
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -49.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:28 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:13 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:35
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:18 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:28 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:29:35
30 / 14 Eloy Canales Escribano
ESP
+43 s
+51 s
G1 / G3
 33:28
30:34
 1:29:35
Show details
Prediction details: Eloy Canales Escribano

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -7.6 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:28 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:34 (3:03 / km)
Error: +2:54 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:35
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:28 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:29:35
31 / 23 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+29 s
+4 s
G1 / G3
 33:40
31:23
 1:29:47
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 23–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 17:12
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: +2:17 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:12 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:29:47
32 / 39 Jasper Devos
BEL
+56 s
+84 s
G2 / G4
 33:17
31:33
 1:29:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jasper Devos

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 9–54
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 17:39
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -27.9 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:44 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:39 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:29:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 57 Zalán Trungel-Nagy
HUN
+59 s
+89 s
G2 / G7
 33:17
33:57
 1:29:51
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Trungel-Nagy

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 6–53
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 57
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -30.2 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:57 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:29:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 29 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+80 s
+83 s
G3 / G4
 31:51
31:00
 1:29:57
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 18–59
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:00 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:29:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 31.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 48 Theo Marti
LUX
+41 s
+83 s
G1 / G5
 33:51
33:03
 1:29:58
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Marti

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 17–47
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 17:24
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -42.3 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:03 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:24 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:29:58
36 / 24 Michał Oliwa
POL
+44 s
+49 s
G1 / G4
 33:51
30:30
 1:29:58
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 29–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 17:27
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (3:03 / km)
Error: +3:21 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:29:58
37 / 5 Eduardo Blanco Mollá
ESP
+27 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:13
31:03
 1:30:20
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Blanco Mollá

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 29–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:10
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (9 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:03 (3:06 / km)
Error: +3:10 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:10 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:30:20
38 / 45 Kamil Kulik
POL
+74 s
+118 s
G3 / G7
 32:17
30:57
 1:30:23
Show details
Prediction details: Kamil Kulik

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 18–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 17:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: -44.2 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:17 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:57 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 32:17 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:30:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 25.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 55 Aurelien Carre
LUX
+48 s
+133 s
G1 / G7
 34:22
32:51
 1:30:29
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Carre

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 34–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: -84.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:22 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:51 (3:17 / km)
Error: +1:31 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 34:22 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:30:29
40 / 64 João Canadas
POR
+21 s
+48 s
G1 / G9
 34:25
36:34
 1:30:32
Show details
Prediction details: João Canadas

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 32–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 64
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 17:04
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -27.0 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:04 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:30:32
41 / 42 Genis Grau
ESP
+60 s
+48 s
G2 / G3
 34:00
33:02
 1:30:34
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 32–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 17:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:02 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:30:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 19 Jarno Pousada Troitiño
ESP
+64 s
+57 s
G2 / G4
 34:03
30:21
 1:30:37
Show details
Prediction details: Jarno Pousada Troitiño

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 37–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:03 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:21 (3:02 / km)
Error: +3:42 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 34:03 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:30:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 50 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+84 s
+116 s
G3 / G7
 32:41
31:57
 1:30:47
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 30–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +116 s
Fehler: -32.1 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:41 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:57 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 32:41 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:30:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 31 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+15 s
+19 s
G1 / G3
 34:46
32:05
 1:30:53
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 35–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 16:58
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -3.6 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:46 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:41 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:58 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 34:46 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:30:53
45 / 61 Severin Schwarz
SUI
+31 s
+36 s
G1 / G6
 34:57
35:24
 1:31:04
Show details
Prediction details: Severin Schwarz

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 23–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 61
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 17:14
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:24 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:14 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:31:04
46 / 33 Gergő Gyula Soós
HUN
+40 s
+42 s
G1 / G3
 35:02
32:09
 1:31:09
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Gyula Soós

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 40–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 17:23
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:02 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:09 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:53 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:23 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 35:02 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:31:09
47 / 54 Elias Leimer
SUI
+60 s
+65 s
G2 / G4
 34:39
34:44
 1:31:13
Show details
Prediction details: Elias Leimer

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 13–60
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 17:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:44 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:31:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 43 Lehel Hóbor
HUN
+33 s
+34 s
G1 / G3
 35:28
33:11
 1:31:35
Show details
Prediction details: Lehel Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 39–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 17:16
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:11 (3:19 / km)
Error: +2:17 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:16 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:31:35
49 / 58 Rodrigo Pissarra
POR
+54 s
+76 s
G2 / G4
 35:08
36:03
 1:31:42
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Pissarra

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 38–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 58
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -22.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:03 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:31:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 25 Ibe Baelde
BEL
+71 s
+59 s
G3 / G4
 33:41
30:41
 1:31:47
Show details
Prediction details: Ibe Baelde

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 21–60
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 17:54
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Error: +3:00 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:54 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:31:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 22.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 21 Jens Smolders
BEL
+82 s
+54 s
G3 / G4
 33:50
30:22
 1:31:56
Show details
Prediction details: Jens Smolders

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 12–62
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:22 (3:02 / km)
Error: +3:28 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:31:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 30 Achille Besson
FRA
+95 s
+40 s
G5 / G4
 32:33
31:02
 1:32:49
Show details
Prediction details: Achille Besson

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 38–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 55.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -2.18 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:02 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:31 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:40 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:32:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 46.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 44 Jose Ferreira
POR
+71 s
+77 s
G3 / G4
 35:12
32:59
 1:33:18
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 21–62
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 17:54
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -6.5 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Error: +2:13 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:54 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:33:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 21.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 51 Moritz Meier
AUT
+76 s
+80 s
G3 / G4
 35:23
34:00
 1:33:29
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Meier

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 49–60
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 17:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -4.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:23 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 35:23 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:33:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 62 Diogo Tomé
POR
+76 s
+75 s
G3 / G4
 35:25
37:12
 1:33:31
Show details
Prediction details: Diogo Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 51–59
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 62
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 17:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.77 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:25 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:31
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 35:25 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:33:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 27.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 49 Tomás Figueiredo
POR
+97 s
+62 s
G5 / G4
 33:45
33:41
 1:34:01
Show details
Prediction details: Tomás Figueiredo

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 48–60
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +97 s
Time: 18:20
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 34.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -1.47 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:45 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:20 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:40 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 33:45 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:34:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 48.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 59 Jayden Scott Koslick
GER
+58 s
+89 s
G2 / G7
 37:28
34:25
 1:34:02
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Scott Koslick

Placement

Prediction: 57
80% range: 55–61
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 59
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -31.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.98 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Error: +3:03 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:02
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:34:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 47 David Abreu
POR
+92 s
+91 s
G4 / G4
correct 		35:14
33:12
 1:34:13
Show details
Prediction details: David Abreu

Placement

Prediction: 58
80% range: 54–61
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:14 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 1.70 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:12 (3:19 / km)
Error: +2:02 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:27 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 35:14 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:34:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 43.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 38 Gustavo Do Canto
POR
+38 s
+11 s
G1 / G3
 38:11
32:33
 1:34:18
Show details
Prediction details: Gustavo Do Canto

Placement

Prediction: 59
80% range: 55–60
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 17:21
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (19 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:11 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Error: +5:38 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:21 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:19 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 38:11 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:34:18
60 / 37 Martin Hubner
FRA
+105 s
+85 s
G6 / G4
 31:52
31:32
 1:34:19
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Hubner

Placement

Prediction: 60
80% range: 33–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 19.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:28 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:43 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:34:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 56 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 41 Afonso Ferreira
POR
+79 s
+78 s
G3 / G4
 36:27
32:11
 1:34:33
Show details
Prediction details: Afonso Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 61
80% range: 54–62
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:27 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Error: +4:16 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:33
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 36:27 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:34:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 30.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 52 Jakob Meier
AUT
+84 s
+61 s
G3 / G4
 36:29
34:05
 1:34:35
Show details
Prediction details: Jakob Meier

Placement

Prediction: 62
80% range: 55–62
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (26 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:29 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:05 (3:25 / km)
Error: +2:24 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 36:29 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:34:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 35 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 / 60 Joaquín Mojica Baquero
COL
+103 s
+138 s
G6 / G7
 40:01
35:00
 1:42:28
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquín Mojica Baquero

Placement

Prediction: 63
80% range: 63–63
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 60
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +138 s
Fehler: -35.3 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:01 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Error: +5:01 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:43 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 40:01 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:42:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 54.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 56 Joao Vaz
POR
+57 s
+96 s
G2 / G7
 1:01:45
33:17
 1:58:19
Show details
Prediction details: Joao Vaz

Placement

Prediction: 64
80% range: 64–64
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: -39.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.64 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (8 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:01:45 (6:10 / km)
Historical basis: 6:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:17 (3:20 / km)
Error: +28:28 / +2:51 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:19
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:30 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 1:01:45 (6:10 / km)
Total: 1:58:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.