Elite Women
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 76 früheren Rennen und 1467 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.6 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 28.03.2026.
Datenabdeckung 62.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 97.7 % · 76 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
BEL
|
+14 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
34:34
33:38
|
1:35:39 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 19:17
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen,
142 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.10 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.0 s
Gap behind:
1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h
Running and totalRun: 34:34 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen,
131 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.01 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:38 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:17
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
34:34
(3:27 / km)
Total:
1:35:39
|
| 2 / 2 |
POR
|
+41 s
+13 s
|
G2 / G1
|
34:41
34:03
|
1:36:18 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
90 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.14 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.0 s
Gap behind:
0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h
Running and totalRun: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
90 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:03 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:44
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
34:41
(3:28 / km)
Total:
1:36:18
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 3 / 31 |
AUT
|
+43 s
+106 s
|
G2 / G5
|
34:49
34:22
|
1:36:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 3
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -28
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: -63.2 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen,
89 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.41 %,
Sicherheit 79 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
2.3 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.76 km/h
Running and totalRun: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
72 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.27 %,
Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:22 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:46
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
34:49
(3:29 / km)
Total:
1:36:26
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 4 / 4 |
FRA
|
+5 s
+11 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
35:22
35:54
|
1:36:27 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 4
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 19:08
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
92 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.09 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.8 s
Gap behind:
1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h
Running and totalRun: 35:22 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
69 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.35 %,
Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:08
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
35:22
(3:32 / km)
Total:
1:36:27
|
| 5 / 14 |
ITA
|
+48 s
+91 s
|
G2 / G3
|
34:55
35:27
|
1:36:32 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 5
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -9
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 19:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -43.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
108 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.19 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.9 s
Gap behind:
6.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h
Running and totalRun: 34:55 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
108 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.24 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:51
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
34:55
(3:29 / km)
Total:
1:36:32
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 6 / 3 |
FRA
|
+7 s
+10 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
35:49
35:21
|
1:36:54 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 6
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
56 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.16 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.6 s
Gap behind:
2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h
Running and totalRun: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.06 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:10
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
35:49
(3:35 / km)
Total:
1:36:54
|
| 7 / 10 |
ITA
|
+36 s
+33 s
|
G2 / G3
|
35:20
35:01
|
1:36:57 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 7
80% range: 2–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 19:39
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen,
126 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.37 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: 35:20 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
115 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.50 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:39
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
35:20
(3:32 / km)
Total:
1:36:57
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 8 / 11 |
AUT
|
+4 s
+15 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
36:03
36:36
|
1:37:08 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 8
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.22 %,
Sicherheit 73 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h
Running and totalRun: 36:03 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.14 %,
Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:36 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:07
(1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
36:03
(3:36 / km)
Total:
1:37:08
|
| 9 / 7 |
ESP
|
+36 s
+22 s
|
G2 / G1
|
35:38
36:09
|
1:37:15 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 9
80% range: 3–15
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 19:39
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
102 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.20 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.1 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h
Running and totalRun: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
102 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.82 %,
Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:09 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:39
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
35:38
(3:34 / km)
Total:
1:37:15
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 10 / 12 |
GBR
|
+11 s
+39 s
|
G1 / G3
|
36:47
35:04
|
1:37:52 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 10
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
13 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.48 %,
Sicherheit 24 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.3 s
Gap behind:
2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h
Running and totalRun: 36:47 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
10 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.27 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:04 (3:30 / km)
Error: +1:43 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:14
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
36:47
(3:41 / km)
Total:
1:37:52
|
| 11 / 17 |
ESP
|
+31 s
+92 s
|
G2 / G3
|
36:31
36:08
|
1:38:08 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 11
80% range: 2–22
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 19:34
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -60.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
162 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.19 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.0 s
Gap behind:
0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h
Running and totalRun: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
151 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.09 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:34
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
36:31
(3:39 / km)
Total:
1:38:08
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 12 / 20 |
POL
|
+41 s
+39 s
|
G2 / G4
|
36:43
36:25
|
1:38:20 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 12
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
44 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.05 %,
Sicherheit 41 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.0 s
Gap behind:
2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.99 km/h
Running and totalRun: 36:43 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
31 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.23 %,
Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:25 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:44
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
36:43
(3:40 / km)
Total:
1:38:20
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 13 / 25 |
FRA
|
+38 s
+91 s
|
G2 / G3
|
36:57
37:29
|
1:38:34 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 13
80% range: 10–21
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -12
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -52.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
65 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.26 %,
Sicherheit 73 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.1 s
Gap behind:
1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h
Running and totalRun: 36:57 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
65 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.64 %,
Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:29 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:41
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
36:57
(3:42 / km)
Total:
1:38:34
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 12 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 14 / 21 |
FRA
|
+9 s
+40 s
|
G1 / G3
|
37:33
36:55
|
1:38:38 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 14
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -30.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen,
83 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.36 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.7 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
77 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.27 %,
Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:55 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:12
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
37:33
(3:45 / km)
Total:
1:38:38
|
| 15 / 24 |
POL
|
+16 s
+33 s
|
G1 / G3
|
37:41
37:31
|
1:38:46 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 15
80% range: 3–29
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -9
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 19:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -16.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.33 %,
Sicherheit 26 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.8 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:41 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
38 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.30 %,
Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:31 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:19
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
37:41
(3:46 / km)
Total:
1:38:46
|
| 16 / 16 |
ESP
|
+40 s
+30 s
|
G2 / G3
|
37:16
35:43
|
1:38:53 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 16
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 19:43
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
108 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.3 s
Gap behind:
1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.14 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:16 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
108 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.05 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:43
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
37:16
(3:44 / km)
Total:
1:38:53
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 13.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 17 / 9 |
SVK
|
+43 s
+33 s
|
G2 / G3
|
37:27
34:44
|
1:39:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 17
80% range: 14–29
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
71 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.12 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.0 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
71 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.32 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:44 (3:28 / km)
Error: +2:43 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:46
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
37:27
(3:45 / km)
Total:
1:39:04
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 18 / 6 |
FRA
|
+16 s
+1 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
38:01
35:58
|
1:39:06 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 18
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 12
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 19:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
138 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.67 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h
Running and totalRun: 38:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
138 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.52 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +2:03 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:19
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
38:01
(3:48 / km)
Total:
1:39:06
|
| 19 / 22 |
FIN
|
+27 s
+31 s
|
G2 / G4
|
37:48
36:50
|
1:39:25 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 19
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.58 %,
Sicherheit 70 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.5 s
Gap behind:
0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.16 %,
Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:25
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:30
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
37:48
(3:47 / km)
Total:
1:39:25
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 20 / 33 |
ROU
|
+46 s
+30 s
|
G2 / G3
|
37:51
38:58
|
1:39:28 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 20
80% range: 18–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -13
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen,
74 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.36 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.9 s
Gap behind:
1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.02 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:51 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
68 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:58 (3:54 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:49
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
37:51
(3:47 / km)
Total:
1:39:28
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 19.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 21 / 34 |
SUI
|
+15 s
+90 s
|
G1 / G3
|
38:23
39:02
|
1:39:28 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 21
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -13
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 19:18
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: -74.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
61 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.25 %,
Sicherheit 72 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.3 s
Gap behind:
0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h
Running and totalRun: 38:23 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
50 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.14 %,
Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:02 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:18
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
38:23
(3:50 / km)
Total:
1:39:28
|
| 22 / 26 |
GBR
|
+21 s
+94 s
|
G1 / G4
|
38:43
37:38
|
1:39:48 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 22
80% range: 17–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 19:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +94 s
Fehler: -73.1 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 86 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h
Running and totalRun: 38:43 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:48
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:24
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
38:43
(3:52 / km)
Total:
1:39:48
|
| 23 / 39 |
BEL
|
+21 s
+41 s
|
G1 / G4
|
39:01
40:33
|
1:40:06 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 23
80% range: 17–30
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -16
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 19:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -20.4 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
84 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.59 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.12 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:01 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
84 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.09 %,
Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:33 (4:03 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:24
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
39:01
(3:54 / km)
Total:
1:40:06
|
| 24 / 32 |
BEL
|
+26 s
+88 s
|
G1 / G3
|
39:08
38:49
|
1:40:13 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 24
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -62.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
67 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.32 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.8 s
Gap behind:
1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:08 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen,
65 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.63 %,
Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:49 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:29
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
39:08
(3:55 / km)
Total:
1:40:13
|
| 25 / 23 |
BEL
|
+45 s
+91 s
|
G2 / G3
|
38:55
37:23
|
1:40:32 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 25
80% range: 21–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:48
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -45.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen,
104 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.29 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.3 s
Gap behind:
0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h
Running and totalRun: 38:55 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
90 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:48
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
38:55
(3:53 / km)
Total:
1:40:32
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 26 / 8 |
FRA
|
+25 s
+12 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
39:42
36:24
|
1:40:47 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 26
80% range: 9–38
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 18
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 19:28
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
30 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.70 %,
Sicherheit 41 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.0 s
Gap behind:
0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
30 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.41 %,
Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Error: +3:18 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:28
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
39:42
(3:58 / km)
Total:
1:40:47
|
| 27 / 43 |
GER
|
+35 s
+114 s
|
G2 / G7
|
39:13
39:55
|
1:40:50 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 27
80% range: 7–39
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -16
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -79.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
25 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.08 %,
Sicherheit 24 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.7 s
Gap behind:
1.1 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.63 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:13 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.00 %,
Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:55 (4:00 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:38
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
39:13
(3:55 / km)
Total:
1:40:50
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 28 / 13 |
ESP
|
+10 s
+12 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
40:02
36:49
|
1:41:07 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 28
80% range: 24–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 15
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 19:13
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -2.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen,
141 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h
Running and totalRun: 40:02 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
130 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.92 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:49 (3:41 / km)
Error: +3:13 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:13
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
40:02
(4:00 / km)
Total:
1:41:07
|
| 29 / 36 |
ESP
|
+43 s
+89 s
|
G2 / G3
|
39:31
39:33
|
1:41:08 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 29
80% range: 25–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -46.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen,
78 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.37 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:31 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
67 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:33 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:46
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
39:31
(3:57 / km)
Total:
1:41:08
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 30 / 28 |
NED
|
+20 s
+20 s
|
G1 / G3
|
40:09
37:58
|
1:41:14 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 30
80% range: 25–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 0.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.74 %,
Sicherheit 47 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.0 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h
Running and totalRun: 40:09 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.46 %,
Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:23
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
40:09
(4:01 / km)
Total:
1:41:14
|
| 31 / 29 |
ESP
|
+32 s
+39 s
|
G2 / G3
|
39:42
38:26
|
1:41:19 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 31
80% range: 25–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
85 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.21 %,
Sicherheit 83 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
2.7 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.99 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
74 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.09 %,
Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:26 (3:51 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:35
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
39:42
(3:58 / km)
Total:
1:41:19
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 32 / 5 |
POR
|
+74 s
+90 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
37:30
34:17
|
1:41:40 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 32
80% range: 19–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 27
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: -16.2 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen,
105 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.25 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.5 s
Gap behind:
14.4 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:30 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen,
105 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.74 %,
Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:17 (3:26 / km)
Error: +3:13 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:17
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:02:56
(38.1 km/h)
Run:
37:30
(3:45 / km)
Total:
1:41:40
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 47.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 33 / 19 |
BEL
|
+13 s
+13 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
41:00
38:09
|
1:42:05 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 33
80% range: 30–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 14
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 19:16
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen,
75 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.23 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.0 s
Gap behind:
1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h
Running and totalRun: 41:00 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen,
75 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.29 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Error: +2:51 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:16
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:40
(39.6 km/h)
Run:
41:00
(4:06 / km)
Total:
1:42:05
|
| 34 / 30 |
POR
|
+28 s
+35 s
|
G2 / G3
|
40:39
38:33
|
1:42:16 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 34
80% range: 16–39
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 19:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.41 %,
Sicherheit 11 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.4 s
Gap behind:
2.8 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h
Running and totalRun: 40:39 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.01 %,
Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:33 (3:51 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:31
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
40:39
(4:04 / km)
Total:
1:42:16
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 35 / 18 |
POR
|
+70 s
+92 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
38:07
36:32
|
1:42:17 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 35
80% range: 18–38
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 17
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 20:13
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: -21.7 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen,
105 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.05 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.3 s
Gap behind:
3.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h
Running and totalRun: 38:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen,
105 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:13
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:02:56
(38.1 km/h)
Run:
38:07
(3:49 / km)
Total:
1:42:17
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 44.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 36 / 15 |
BEL
|
+32 s
+15 s
|
G2 / G1
|
41:26
37:06
|
1:43:03 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 36
80% range: 33–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 21
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen,
119 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.20 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.5 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h
Running and totalRun: 41:26 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
111 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.03 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:06 (3:43 / km)
Error: +4:20 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:35
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
41:26
(4:09 / km)
Total:
1:43:03
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 37 / 27 |
POR
|
+30 s
+23 s
|
G2 / G3
|
41:39
37:53
|
1:43:16 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 37
80% range: 33–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
56 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.49 %,
Sicherheit 92 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.8 s
Gap behind:
1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h
Running and totalRun: 41:39 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
56 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.27 %,
Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +3:46 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:33
(1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:00:50
(39.5 km/h)
Run:
41:39
(4:10 / km)
Total:
1:43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 4.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 38 / 40 |
ESP
|
+54 s
+90 s
|
G3 / G4
|
41:24
40:39
|
1:45:34 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 38
80% range: 35–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 19:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: -35.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
58 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.06 %,
Sicherheit 98 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
6.5 s
Gap behind:
4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h
Running and totalRun: 41:24 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
58 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.51 %,
Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:39 (4:04 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:57
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:02:56
(38.1 km/h)
Run:
41:24
(4:08 / km)
Total:
1:45:34
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 28.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 39 / 41 |
GER
|
+108 s
+96 s
|
G4 / G6
|
37:33
36:32
|
1:46:40 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 39
80% range: 28–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 20:51
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.16 %,
Sicherheit 59 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
20.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h
Running and totalRun: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.06 %,
Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:40
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:51
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:07:19
(35.5 km/h)
Run:
37:33
(3:45 / km)
Total:
1:46:40
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 82 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 40 / 42 |
NED
|
+58 s
+113 s
|
G3 / G5
|
42:59
43:23
|
1:47:09 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 40
80% range: 38–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 20:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -54.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.57 %,
Sicherheit 15 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.0 s
Gap behind:
7.6 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h
Running and totalRun: 42:59 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.24 %,
Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:23 (4:20 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:01
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:02:56
(38.1 km/h)
Run:
42:59
(4:18 / km)
Total:
1:47:09
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 32.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 41 / 38 |
UKR
|
+88 s
+91 s
|
G4 / G5
|
39:01
35:58
|
1:48:08 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 41
80% range: 33–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 20:31
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.38 %,
Sicherheit 53 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
14.4 s
Gap behind:
20.0 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h
Running and totalRun: 39:01 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +3:03 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:31
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:07:19
(35.5 km/h)
Run:
39:01
(3:54 / km)
Total:
1:48:08
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 62 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 42 / 37 |
GBR
|
+66 s
+35 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
56:37
39:52
|
2:00:47 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 42
80% range: 42–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 20:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 31.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 6 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
7.6 s
Gap behind:
4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h
Running and totalRun: 56:37 (5:40 / km)
Historical basis: 5:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:52 (3:59 / km)
Error: +16:45 / +1:40 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
20:09
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:02:56
(38.1 km/h)
Run:
56:37
(5:40 / km)
Total:
2:00:47
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 39.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 35 |
AUT
|
+0 s
+32 s
|
G0 / G3
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39:21
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Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 43–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:21 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
19:03
(1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
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