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Predicition
Prediction comparison

16-19 Female AG Sprint

11.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean bike-speed error36.32 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Place
Prediction / result
Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result
Bike group
Prediction / result
Run
Prediction / result
Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Nancy Corrie
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G1
18:19
Show details
Prediction details: Nancy Corrie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (7:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Maria Alisa Sushch Kikgeben
ESP
+128 s
G0 / G2
21:31
20:08
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Alisa Sushch Kikgeben

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time:
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:31 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1

Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (8:03 / km)
Error: +1:23 / −3:45 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run: 21:31 (4:18 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ffion Mulford
GBR
+61 s
G0 / G3
20:56
20:54
Show details
Prediction details: Ffion Mulford

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time:
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 20:54 (8:22 / km)
Error: +0:02 / −4:10 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Rosie Dowson
GBR
+258 s
G0 / G4
21:05
21:53
Show details
Prediction details: Rosie Dowson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +258 s
Time:
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 21:53 (8:45 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −4:32 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Katie Evans
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
21:22
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Evans

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (8:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.