Prediction comparison

30-34 Female AG

12.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 10/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.3

Mean bike-speed error31.72 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history4

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	María Narváez Paloma ESP	+0 s	G0 / G1	1:22:09 39:30	Show details Prediction details: María Narváez Paloma Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.23 km/h Running and total Run: 1:22:09 (8:13 / km) Historical basis: 8:13 / km Best comparable pace: 8:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:30 (7:54 / km) Error: +42:39 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:22:09 (8:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Kaja Gwizdalska POL	+0 s	G0 / G2	41:48	Show details Prediction details: Kaja Gwizdalska Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 32.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:48 (8:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Paula Chafer Pastor ESP	+504 s	G0 / G3	43:00	Show details Prediction details: Paula Chafer Pastor Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +504 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.22 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:00 (8:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Laura Kaye GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4	39:58	Show details Prediction details: Laura Kaye Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:58 (8:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Ellie Humphries GBR	+0 s	G0 / G3	44:34	Show details Prediction details: Ellie Humphries Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:34 (8:55 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Fiona Riordan IRL	+0 s	G0 / G5	1:26:40 41:46	Show details Prediction details: Fiona Riordan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 30.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.70 km/h Running and total Run: 1:26:40 (8:40 / km) Historical basis: 8:40 / km Best comparable pace: 8:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:46 (8:21 / km) Error: +44:54 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:26:40 (8:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Elizabeth Barreiro GBR	+0 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Elizabeth Barreiro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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