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Prediction comparison

35-39 Open AG Sprint

11.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 14/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 229 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 12.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 6.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 20.0 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.8
Mean bike-speed error39.30 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history7
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Francisco Javier De León Rodríguez
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G1
16:09
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Javier De León Rodríguez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -41.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (6:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Òscar Montserrat Aguiló
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G2
16:35
Show details
Prediction details: Òscar Montserrat Aguiló

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (6:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Alessandro Cazzolla
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G2
 31:47
17:09
Show details
Prediction details: Alessandro Cazzolla

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -41.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:47 (6:21 / km)
Historical basis: 6:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (6:52 / km)
Error: +14:38 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 31:47 (6:21 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Oskar Bergström
SWE
+115 s
G0 / G2
17:07
Show details
Prediction details: Oskar Bergström

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -41.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (6:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Eliot Taylor
GBR
+473 s
G0 / G3
 32:38
17:05
Show details
Prediction details: Eliot Taylor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +473 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -40.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:38 (6:32 / km)
Historical basis: 6:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (6:50 / km)
Error: +15:33 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 32:38 (6:32 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Craig Gale
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G3
17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Craig Gale

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (7:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 David Crawford
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G3
17:29
Show details
Prediction details: David Crawford

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (7:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 James Hill
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
17:08
Show details
Prediction details: James Hill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -38.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (6:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Eduardo Casero Martín
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G4
18:52
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Casero Martín

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (7:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Adam Gale
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
18:13
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Gale

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (7:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Martin Vogler
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
18:51
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Vogler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (7:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Tej Thaker
GBR
+219 s
G0 / G5
 33:35
18:50
Show details
Prediction details: Tej Thaker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +219 s
Time:
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -39.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:35 (6:43 / km)
Historical basis: 6:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (7:32 / km)
Error: +14:45 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 33:35 (6:43 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Sean Armfield
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G6
20:17
Show details
Prediction details: Sean Armfield

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (8:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Matthew Johnson
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G8
 37:49
21:20
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:49 (7:34 / km)
Historical basis: 7:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (8:32 / km)
Error: +16:29 / −0:58 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 37:49 (7:34 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Paul Mitchell
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G7
20:56
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (8:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.