Prediction comparison

40-44 Female AG Sprint

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 23/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 7.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 21.4 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.3

Mean bike-speed error35.20 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Zahira Alegre Navarro ESP	+0 s	G0 / G1	19:32	Show details Prediction details: Zahira Alegre Navarro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.99 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (7:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Rita Steger GER	+0 s	G0 / G1	38:08 19:35	Show details Prediction details: Rita Steger Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.93 km/h Running and total Run: 38:08 (7:38 / km) Historical basis: 7:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (7:50 / km) Error: +18:33 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 38:08 (7:38 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Ellie Dominey GBR	+0 s	G0 / G2	37:48 19:30	Show details Prediction details: Ellie Dominey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.50 km/h Running and total Run: 37:48 (7:34 / km) Historical basis: 7:34 / km Best comparable pace: 7:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (7:48 / km) Error: +18:18 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:48 (7:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Laura Allen GBR	+0 s	G0 / G3	19:53	Show details Prediction details: Laura Allen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.39 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (7:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Holly Woolford GBR	+0 s	G0 / G3	37:26 19:52	Show details Prediction details: Holly Woolford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.29 km/h Running and total Run: 37:26 (7:29 / km) Historical basis: 7:29 / km Best comparable pace: 7:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:52 (7:57 / km) Error: +17:34 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 37:26 (7:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Irene Rodríguez Güell ESP	+0 s	G0 / G4	21:30	Show details Prediction details: Irene Rodríguez Güell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:30 (8:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Caroline Wilkins GBR	+140 s	G0 / G5	21:17 21:01	Show details Prediction details: Caroline Wilkins Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: Pace: 2:01 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.64 km/h Running and total Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (8:24 / km) Error: +0:16 / −4:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Ceri Shephard GBR	+0 s	G0 / G5	40:00 21:22	Show details Prediction details: Ceri Shephard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.71 km/h Running and total Run: 40:00 (8:00 / km) Historical basis: 7:59 / km Best comparable pace: 7:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (8:33 / km) Error: +18:38 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 40:00 (8:00 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Marion Jeffery GBR	+0 s	G0 / G6	22:33	Show details Prediction details: Marion Jeffery Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.37 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:33 (9:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Katie Roberts GBR	+0 s	G0 / G7	22:47	Show details Prediction details: Katie Roberts Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.04 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:47 (9:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Núria Terradellas ESP	+0 s	G0 / G7	22:09	Show details Prediction details: Núria Terradellas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:09 (8:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Jamie Dickerson GBR	+0 s	G0 / G8	24:02	Show details Prediction details: Jamie Dickerson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -33.17 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:02 (9:37 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Claire Dewhirst GBR	+0 s	G0 / G9	25:16	Show details Prediction details: Claire Dewhirst Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -31.67 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:16 (10:06 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Magdolna Solcz-Ujvári HUN	+0 s	G0 / G10	27:48	Show details Prediction details: Magdolna Solcz-Ujvári Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -31.71 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:48 (11:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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