Prediction comparison

50-54 Female AG

12.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 35/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.2

Mean bike-speed error29.90 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Marianne Carpenter GBR	+388 s	G0 / G1	42:11 42:49	Show details Prediction details: Marianne Carpenter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +388 s Time: Pace: 1:59 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.50 km/h Running and total Run: 42:11 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:49 (8:34 / km) Error: −0:38 / −4:21 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 42:11 (4:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Sarah McDonald GBR	+1,463 s	G0 / G2	50:56 48:10	Show details Prediction details: Sarah McDonald Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,463 s Time: Pace: 2:30 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 30.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -29.97 km/h Running and total Run: 50:56 (5:06 / km) Historical basis: 5:09 / km Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km Trend: −0:06 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 48:10 (9:38 / km) Error: +2:46 / −4:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 50:56 (5:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Laura Esther Ríos Torquet ESP	+0 s	G0 / G5	1:36:40 46:57	Show details Prediction details: Laura Esther Ríos Torquet Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 28.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.26 km/h Running and total Run: 1:36:40 (9:40 / km) Historical basis: 9:40 / km Best comparable pace: 9:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 46:57 (9:23 / km) Error: +49:43 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 1:36:40 (9:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Joanna Lockwood GBR	+0 s	G0 / G3	50:17	Show details Prediction details: Joanna Lockwood Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -30.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 50:17 (10:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Helen Fletcher GBR	+0 s	G0 / G4	47:56	Show details Prediction details: Helen Fletcher Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:56 (9:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Lucia Bambynek GER	+705 s	G0 / G6	52:06 49:31	Show details Prediction details: Lucia Bambynek Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +705 s Time: Pace: 2:21 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 28.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.49 km/h Running and total Run: 52:06 (5:13 / km) Historical basis: 5:13 / km Best comparable pace: 5:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 49:31 (9:54 / km) Error: +2:35 / −4:42 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 52:06 (5:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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