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Prediction comparison

55-59 Female AG

12.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 30.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.9
Mean bike-speed error30.60 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history1
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Karen Murphy
GBR
+123 s
G0 / G1
 44:01
44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Murphy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +123 s
Time:
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:01 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:15 (8:51 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −4:27 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 44:01 (4:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Nollaigh O'Neill
IRL
+0 s
G0 / G2
43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Nollaigh O'Neill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:03 (8:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Jacqueline Woodward
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G3
 1:26:00
44:22
Show details
Prediction details: Jacqueline Woodward

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:26:00 (8:36 / km)
Historical basis: 8:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:22 (8:52 / km)
Error: +41:38 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:26:00 (8:36 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Alison Trauttmansdorff
GBR
+412 s
G0 / G4
 45:29
44:57
Show details
Prediction details: Alison Trauttmansdorff

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +412 s
Time:
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:29 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:57 (8:59 / km)
Error: +0:32 / −4:27 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 45:29 (4:33 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Sandra Buckton
GBR
+341 s
G0 / G6
 49:59
48:19
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Buckton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +341 s
Time:
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 49:59 (5:00 / km)
Historical basis: 5:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:19 (9:40 / km)
Error: +1:40 / −4:40 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 49:59 (5:00 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Frederique Poillet
FRA
+391 s
G0 / G5
48:10
Show details
Prediction details: Frederique Poillet

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +391 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:10 (9:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Ana Maria Fuster Mestre
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G7
45:49
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Fuster Mestre

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:49 (9:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Tracey Williams
GBR
+565 s
G0 / G7
 51:29
52:48
Show details
Prediction details: Tracey Williams

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +565 s
Time:
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:29 (5:09 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 52:48 (10:34 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −5:25 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 51:29 (5:09 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Polly Siobhan Rogers-Dixon
IRL
+319 s
G0 / G8
53:23
Show details
Prediction details: Polly Siobhan Rogers-Dixon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +319 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 53:23 (10:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Elaine White
GBR
+868 s
G0 / G9
58:24
Show details
Prediction details: Elaine White

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +868 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -27.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 58:24 (11:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.