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Prediction comparison

55-59 Open AG

12.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 15/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 12 früheren Rennen und 194 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 2.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 11.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 22.2 % · 12 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.6
Mean bike-speed error33.83 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history4
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Ian Randall
GBR
+193 s
G0 / G1
 39:28
37:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Randall

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +193 s
Time:
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -38.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:28 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:30 (7:30 / km)
Error: +1:58 / −3:33 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 39:28 (3:57 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Chris Nicoll
GBR
+0 s
 Bike DNF 1:13:57
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Nicoll

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 1:13:57 (7:24 / km)
Historical basis: 7:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:13:57 (7:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Pietro Carrara
ITA
+0 s
G0 / G2
 40:44
38:01
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Carrara

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -37.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:44 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:01 (7:36 / km)
Error: +2:43 / −3:32 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 40:44 (4:04 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Tim Wing
GBR
+419 s
G0 / G3
 41:25
1:41:35
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Wing

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +419 s
Time:
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:25 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:41:35 (20:19 / km)
Error: −60:10 / −16:10 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 41:25 (4:09 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Pascal Cassez
FRA
+264 s
G0 / G3
 41:18
37:59
Show details
Prediction details: Pascal Cassez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +264 s
Time:
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.89 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:59 (7:36 / km)
Error: +3:19 / −3:28 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 41:18 (4:08 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Alfonso Lahuerta Izquierdo
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G4
41:44
Show details
Prediction details: Alfonso Lahuerta Izquierdo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -37.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:44 (8:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Richard Shaw
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Shaw

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:16 (8:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Paul Cockburn
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G7
 1:17:11
41:00
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Cockburn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:17:11 (7:43 / km)
Historical basis: 7:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:00 (8:12 / km)
Error: +36:11 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:17:11 (7:43 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Andrew Dovernor
GBR
+578 s
G0 / G8
 41:22
40:20
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Dovernor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +578 s
Time:
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -33.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:22 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:20 (8:04 / km)
Error: +1:02 / −3:56 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 41:22 (4:08 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Iain McInnes
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
42:16
Show details
Prediction details: Iain McInnes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:16 (8:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Miguel Angel Martinez Esteban
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G10
40:46
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Angel Martinez Esteban

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:46 (8:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 David Vickers
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G9
 1:16:04
43:03
Show details
Prediction details: David Vickers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:16:04 (7:36 / km)
Historical basis: 7:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:03 (8:37 / km)
Error: +33:01 / −1:00 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:16:04 (7:36 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Brian Holland
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G12
46:06
Show details
Prediction details: Brian Holland

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:06 (9:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 David Lloyd
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G13
47:55
Show details
Prediction details: David Lloyd

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:55 (9:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Dean Hands
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G16
 1:24:43
44:25
Show details
Prediction details: Dean Hands

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:24:43 (8:28 / km)
Historical basis: 8:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:25 (8:53 / km)
Error: +40:18 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:24:43 (8:28 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Brendan Anglim
GBR
+421 s
G0 / G12
 1:02:51
45:19
Show details
Prediction details: Brendan Anglim

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +421 s
Time:
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:02:51 (6:17 / km)
Historical basis: 6:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:19 (9:04 / km)
Error: +17:32 / −2:47 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:02:51 (6:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 John Vallis
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G14
46:47
Show details
Prediction details: John Vallis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:47 (9:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Michael Conway
IRL
+0 s
G0 / G15
 1:28:53
45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Conway

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -29.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:28:53 (8:53 / km)
Historical basis: 8:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:16 (9:03 / km)
Error: +43:37 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:28:53 (8:53 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.