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Prediction comparison

65-69 Open AG Sprint

11.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 13/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 14 früheren Rennen und 229 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 12.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 5.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.9 % · 14 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.4
Mean bike-speed error34.37 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Tony Harvey
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G1
 36:45
20:16
Show details
Prediction details: Tony Harvey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:45 (7:21 / km)
Historical basis: 7:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:16 (8:06 / km)
Error: +16:29 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 36:45 (7:21 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Jose Caselles Serra
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G2
20:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Caselles Serra

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 (8:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Janko Železnikar
SLO
+0 s
G0 / G3
 23:57
21:12
Show details
Prediction details: Janko Železnikar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.24 %, Sicherheit 0 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:57 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:12 (8:29 / km)
Error: +2:45 / −3:41 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 23:57 (4:47 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Keith Mahon
GBR
+240 s
G0 / G4
21:31
Show details
Prediction details: Keith Mahon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +240 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:31 (8:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Christopher Smith
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
 39:48
21:30
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:48 (7:58 / km)
Historical basis: 7:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:30 (8:36 / km)
Error: +18:18 / −0:38 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 39:48 (7:58 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Didier Marmorat
FRA
+421 s
G0 / G5
 40:22
21:57
Show details
Prediction details: Didier Marmorat

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +421 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:22 (8:04 / km)
Historical basis: 8:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:57 (8:47 / km)
Error: +18:25 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 40:22 (8:04 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Dean Hardie
GBR
+183 s
G0 / G5
 22:32
22:47
Show details
Prediction details: Dean Hardie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +183 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:47 (9:07 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −4:36 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Tamás Gajdos
HUN
+599 s
G0 / G6
22:19
Show details
Prediction details: Tamás Gajdos

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +599 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (8:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Steve Moss
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G6
 47:37
22:59
Show details
Prediction details: Steve Moss

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -35.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:37 (9:31 / km)
Historical basis: 9:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 (9:12 / km)
Error: +24:38 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 47:37 (9:31 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Gary Longhurst
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G6
23:09
Show details
Prediction details: Gary Longhurst

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:09 (9:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Joachim Rathbauer
AUT
+150 s
G0 / G6
 21:20
24:17
Show details
Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time:
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -37.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.25 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:17 (9:43 / km)
Error: −2:57 / −5:27 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Paddy Butler
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G7
 42:50
23:08
Show details
Prediction details: Paddy Butler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:50 (8:34 / km)
Historical basis: 8:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:08 (9:15 / km)
Error: +19:42 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 42:50 (8:34 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Miguel Angel Larrosa Franco
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
23:32
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Angel Larrosa Franco

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:32 (9:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Antoni Linares Torres
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
23:41
Show details
Prediction details: Antoni Linares Torres

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:41 (9:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Chris Griffin
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G9
 45:06
24:15
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Griffin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:06 (9:01 / km)
Historical basis: 8:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:15 (9:42 / km)
Error: +20:51 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 45:06 (9:01 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Peter Browne
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
25:35
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Browne

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (3 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:35 (10:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 John Gummery
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
25:39
Show details
Prediction details: John Gummery

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (3 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:39 (10:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Gary Lane
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
 44:43
24:39
Show details
Prediction details: Gary Lane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (3 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:43 (8:57 / km)
Historical basis: 8:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:39 (9:52 / km)
Error: +20:04 / −0:55 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 44:43 (8:57 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Francisco Manuel Bexiga
POR
+588 s
G0 / G11
 33:33
33:01
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Manuel Bexiga

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +588 s
Time:
Pace: 2:39 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 24.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -24.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:33 (6:43 / km)
Historical basis: 6:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:01 (13:12 / km)
Error: +0:32 / −6:30 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 33:33 (6:43 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.