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Prediction comparison

75-79 Female AG

12.07.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 10/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 165 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.5
Mean bike-speed error26.04 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Elspeth Knott
GBR
+444 s
G0 / G1
 1:03:02
1:00:12
Show details
Prediction details: Elspeth Knott

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +444 s
Time:
Pace: 3:03 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:03:02 (6:18 / km)
Historical basis: 6:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:12 (12:02 / km)
Error: +2:50 / −5:44 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:03:02 (6:18 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Bonnie Ridderberg
DEN
+785 s
G0 / G2
 1:02:46
1:04:55
Show details
Prediction details: Bonnie Ridderberg

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +785 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 23.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -23.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:02:46 (6:17 / km)
Historical basis: 6:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:04:55 (12:59 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −6:42 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:02:46 (6:17 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.