Prediction comparison

Junior Men

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 60/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 58.3 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.6

Mean bike-speed error39.19 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Arcadi Sala Carbasse ESP	+6 s	G0 / G2	19:25 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Arcadi Sala Carbasse Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -42.23 km/h Running and total Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +4:23 / −2:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Jonay Alvarez Almazan ESP	+4 s	G0 / G3	18:19 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Jonay Alvarez Almazan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: Pace: 1:17 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.85 km/h Running and total Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.07 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +3:17 / −2:21 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Manuel Prada Viciano ESP	+5 s	G0 / G3	16:25 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Manuel Prada Viciano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.80 km/h Running and total Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +1:23 / −2:44 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Gaspar Santiago POR	+4 s	G0 / G3	16:11 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Gaspar Santiago Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.78 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +1:09 / −2:47 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Tom Webb GBR	+0 s	G0 / G3	15:02	Show details Prediction details: Tom Webb Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Tom Philippe BEL	+40 s	G0 / G3	16:53 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Tom Philippe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.85 km/h Running and total Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +1:51 / −2:38 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Jan Chmielewski POL	+23 s	G0 / G3	15:34 15:02	Show details Prediction details: Jan Chmielewski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: Pace: 1:16 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (6 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.82 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (6:01 / km) Error: +0:32 / −2:54 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Adam Dąbrowski POL	+18 s	G0 / G4	16:31 15:55	Show details Prediction details: Adam Dąbrowski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: Pace: 1:14 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (6:22 / km) Error: +0:36 / −3:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi UKR	+33 s	G0 / G5	18:21 16:14	Show details Prediction details: Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: Pace: 1:19 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.53 km/h Running and total Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (6:30 / km) Error: +2:07 / −2:49 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Alexander Kostolani SVK	+35 s	G0 / G6	24:33 16:23	Show details Prediction details: Alexander Kostolani Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.70 km/h Running and total Run: 24:33 (4:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:55 / km Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (6:33 / km) Error: +8:10 / −1:39 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:33 (4:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Yordan Beusen BEL	+0 s	G0 / G7	31:36 17:07	Show details Prediction details: Yordan Beusen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.22 km/h Running and total Run: 31:36 (6:19 / km) Historical basis: 6:29 / km Best comparable pace: 6:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (6:51 / km) Error: +14:29 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:36 (6:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Amar Maxhuni KOS	+177 s	G0 / G8	24:43 17:35	Show details Prediction details: Amar Maxhuni Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +177 s Time: Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -33.37 km/h Running and total Run: 24:43 (4:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:54 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (7:02 / km) Error: +7:08 / −2:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 24:43 (4:57 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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