Prediction comparison

Junior Women

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 42/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 44.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 55.6 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.8

Mean bike-speed error36.11 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history3

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Alba Nuñez Hernández ESP	+27 s	G0 / G2	22:37 18:13	Show details Prediction details: Alba Nuñez Hernández Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.18 km/h Running and total Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:36 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (7:17 / km) Error: +4:24 / −2:46 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Natália Betáková SVK	+0 s	G0 / G2	36:35 18:13	Show details Prediction details: Natália Betáková Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.13 km/h Running and total Run: 36:35 (7:19 / km) Historical basis: 7:14 / km Best comparable pace: 7:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (7:17 / km) Error: +18:22 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 36:35 (7:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	María Tenorio Albo ESP	+37 s	G0 / G2	19:55 18:14	Show details Prediction details: María Tenorio Albo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.16 km/h Running and total Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (7:18 / km) Error: +1:41 / −3:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Julia Tenorio Albo ESP	+74 s	G0 / G2	20:30 18:16	Show details Prediction details: Julia Tenorio Albo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.18 km/h Running and total Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (7:18 / km) Error: +2:14 / −3:12 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Aurora Toccaceli ITA	+0 s	G0 / G3	18:13	Show details Prediction details: Aurora Toccaceli Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (7:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Gaia Silvestri ITA	+33 s	G0 / G3	35:48 18:17	Show details Prediction details: Gaia Silvestri Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.80 km/h Running and total Run: 35:48 (7:10 / km) Historical basis: 7:14 / km Best comparable pace: 7:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (7:19 / km) Error: +17:31 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:48 (7:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Rebecca Van Aardt GBR	+28 s	G0 / G3	19:10 18:39	Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Van Aardt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.20 km/h Running and total Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (7:28 / km) Error: +0:31 / −3:38 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Elisabetta Tomasini ITA	+0 s	G0 / G4	18:21	Show details Prediction details: Elisabetta Tomasini Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (7:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Silvie Hradilová CZE	+0 s	G0 / G4	19:07	Show details Prediction details: Silvie Hradilová Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (7:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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