Prediction comparison

U23 Men

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 63/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 809 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 05.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 72.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 72.7 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.0

Mean bike-speed error41.84 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Jarno Pousada Troitiño ESP	+21 s	G0 / G2	16:07 14:45	Show details Prediction details: Jarno Pousada Troitiño Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: Pace: 1:12 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (5:54 / km) Error: +1:22 / −2:41 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Paco Martí Ballester ESP	+39 s	G0 / G2	14:05 14:46	Show details Prediction details: Paco Martí Ballester Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: Pace: 1:12 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.78 km/h Running and total Run: 14:05 (2:49 / km) Historical basis: 2:50 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.47 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (5:54 / km) Error: −0:41 / −3:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 14:05 (2:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Charlie Harding GBR	+14 s	G0 / G2	16:09 15:06	Show details Prediction details: Charlie Harding Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: Pace: 1:16 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -44.49 km/h Running and total Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (6:02 / km) Error: +1:03 / −2:49 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Oliver Hitchcock GBR	+106 s	G0 / G2	15:34 14:55	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Hitchcock Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: Pace: 1:09 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 44.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -44.16 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (5:58 / km) Error: +0:39 / −2:51 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lukas Lanzinger ITA	+37 s	G0 / G2	14:38 14:47	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Lanzinger Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (5 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.95 km/h Running and total Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km) Historical basis: 2:56 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.90 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (5:55 / km) Error: −0:09 / −2:59 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Martin Oldenhove BEL	+134 s	G0 / G3	29:15 15:24	Show details Prediction details: Martin Oldenhove Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +134 s Time: Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -42.99 km/h Running and total Run: 29:15 (5:51 / km) Historical basis: 5:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (6:10 / km) Error: +13:51 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 29:15 (5:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Joshua Weston GBR	+140 s	G0 / G3	17:13 15:08	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Weston Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: Pace: 1:53 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -42.63 km/h Running and total Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (6:03 / km) Error: +2:05 / −2:37 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Simon Schryvers BEL	+71 s	G0 / G3	15:07	Show details Prediction details: Simon Schryvers Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -42.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (6:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Yanis Van Waetermeulen BEL	+115 s	G0 / G4	31:00 15:39	Show details Prediction details: Yanis Van Waetermeulen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +115 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.45 km/h Running and total Run: 31:00 (6:12 / km) Historical basis: 6:13 / km Best comparable pace: 6:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (6:16 / km) Error: +15:21 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 31:00 (6:12 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	David Rodríguez Girón MEX	+174 s	G0 / G5	18:30 16:36	Show details Prediction details: David Rodríguez Girón Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +174 s Time: Pace: 1:37 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -36.86 km/h Running and total Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (6:38 / km) Error: +1:54 / −2:56 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Genc Isufi KOS	+112 s	G0 / G6	18:42 17:18	Show details Prediction details: Genc Isufi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +112 s Time: Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.52 km/h Running and total Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (6:55 / km) Error: +1:24 / −3:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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