Prediction comparison

U23 Women

11.07.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Banyoles

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 70.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.5

Mean bike-speed error38.21 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Lucia Gracia Sancho ESP	+53 s	G0 / G2	18:45 17:11	Show details Prediction details: Lucia Gracia Sancho Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: Pace: 1:29 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.82 km/h Running and total Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (6:52 / km) Error: +1:34 / −3:07 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Hanna Foltyniewicz POL	+45 s	G0 / G2	18:18 17:11	Show details Prediction details: Hanna Foltyniewicz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.91 km/h Running and total Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (6:52 / km) Error: +1:07 / −3:13 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Noemi Bogiatto ITA	+307 s	G0 / G2	33:24 16:36	Show details Prediction details: Noemi Bogiatto Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +307 s Time: Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.23 km/h Running and total Run: 33:24 (6:41 / km) Historical basis: 6:38 / km Best comparable pace: 6:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (6:38 / km) Error: +16:48 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 33:24 (6:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Louise Bailly FRA	+84 s	G0 / G3	16:20	Show details Prediction details: Louise Bailly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -37.40 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (6:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Camille Roman BEL	+149 s	G0 / G4	35:50 17:42	Show details Prediction details: Camille Roman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +149 s Time: Pace: 1:41 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -37.56 km/h Running and total Run: 35:50 (7:10 / km) Historical basis: 7:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (7:05 / km) Error: +18:08 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:50 (7:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Mia Goddard GBR	+121 s	G0 / G4	17:42	Show details Prediction details: Mia Goddard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +121 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -37.44 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (7:05 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Isabelle Price GBR	+65 s	G0 / G4	19:14 17:42	Show details Prediction details: Isabelle Price Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: Pace: 1:29 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -37.50 km/h Running and total Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (7:05 / km) Error: +1:32 / −3:14 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Luna Sommerfeld SUI	+118 s	G0 / G4	19:16 18:09	Show details Prediction details: Luna Sommerfeld Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: Pace: 1:39 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.06 km/h Running and total Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (7:16 / km) Error: +1:07 / −3:24 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Fien Peusens BEL	+95 s	G0 / G4	18:09	Show details Prediction details: Fien Peusens Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: Pace: 1:33 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.02 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (7:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Marthe Roelans BEL	+71 s	G0 / G5	21:39 18:53	Show details Prediction details: Marthe Roelans Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -37.13 km/h Running and total Run: 21:39 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.97 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (7:33 / km) Error: +2:46 / −3:13 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:39 (4:20 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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