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Final Junior Men

09.05.2026 Porto Santa Margherita ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 90/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 557 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 40.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 09.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.8
Mean swim error4.6 s
Mean bike-speed error0.53 km/h
Correct bike groups21/26
No history0
Within the 80% range92.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Valentin Aber
FRA
+1 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:44
5:44
 19:50
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Aber

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 3:26
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:44 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 19:50
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:26 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:01 / km)
Total: 19:50
2 / 4 Guillaume Bohnert
FRA
+9 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:44
5:43
 19:50
Show details
Prediction details: Guillaume Bohnert

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:43 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 19:50
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:34 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:01 / km)
Total: 19:50
3 / 12 Nik Vučko
SLO
+20 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:45
5:51
 19:51
Show details
Prediction details: Nik Vučko

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–24
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 3:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 19:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:45 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:02 / km)
Total: 19:51
4 / 2 Jules Chabanel
FRA
+12 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:49
5:34
 19:55
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Chabanel

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–22
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:37
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 19:55
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:37 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:04 / km)
Total: 19:55
5 / 10 Guglielmo Marafatto
ITA
+9 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:50
5:51
 19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Guglielmo Marafatto

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 19:56
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:34 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Total: 19:56
6 / 3 Dániel Németh
HUN
+19 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:50
5:36
 19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Dániel Németh

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–21
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:36 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 19:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Total: 19:56
7 / 6 Giuseppe Basta
ITA
+19 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:50
5:42
 19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Giuseppe Basta

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–24
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 19:56
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:50 (3:04 / km)
Total: 19:56
8 / 22 Albert Håkansson
SUI
+15 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 5:51
5:51
 19:57
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Håkansson

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:40
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:51 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 19:57
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:40 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:51 (3:05 / km)
Total: 19:57
9 / 9 Yishai Hendel
ISR
+5 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:52
5:52
 19:58
Show details
Prediction details: Yishai Hendel

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:52 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 19:58
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:52 (3:05 / km)
Total: 19:58
10 / 5 Adel Rassineux
FRA
+9 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:53
5:41
 19:59
Show details
Prediction details: Adel Rassineux

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 19:59
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:34 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:53 (3:06 / km)
Total: 19:59
11 / 15 Riccardo Rossi
ITA
+16 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:55
5:58
 20:01
Show details
Prediction details: Riccardo Rossi

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:41
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:01
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:41 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (3:07 / km)
Total: 20:01
12 / 1 Leni Remer-Mancini
FRA
+17 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:56
5:33
 20:02
Show details
Prediction details: Leni Remer-Mancini

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 1–23
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 3:42
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 20:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:42 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (3:07 / km)
Total: 20:02
13 / 8 Aaron Franceschini
ITA
+7 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:57
5:49
 20:03
Show details
Prediction details: Aaron Franceschini

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 2–23
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:32
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:49 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 20:03
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:32 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (3:08 / km)
Total: 20:03
14 / 11 Dorian Esteve
FRA
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:57
5:57
 20:03
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Esteve

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:41
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:57 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 20:03
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:41 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (3:08 / km)
Total: 20:03
15 / 13 Matteo Belli
ITA
+8 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:58
5:58
 20:04
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Belli

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 20:04
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:33 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (3:09 / km)
Total: 20:04
16 / 18 Sebastiano Margaria
ITA
+17 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:58
6:20
 20:04
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastiano Margaria

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 3:42
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:20 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 20:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:42 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Total: 20:04
17 / 20 Antonin Mathieu
FRA
+19 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 5:58
5:38
 20:04
Show details
Prediction details: Antonin Mathieu

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 1–24
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:38 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 20:04
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Total: 20:04
18 / 16 Asaf Zach
ISR
+12 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:00
6:00
 20:06
Show details
Prediction details: Asaf Zach

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:37
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 20:06
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 3:37 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:10 / km)
Total: 20:06
19 / 19 András Szűcs
HUN
+14 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:04
6:22
 20:10
Show details
Prediction details: András Szűcs

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:04 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 20:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:39 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:04 (3:11 / km)
Total: 20:10
20 / 24 Gaetan Dedouche
FRA
+9 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 6:05
6:18
 20:11
Show details
Prediction details: Gaetan Dedouche

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:05 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:18 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 20:11
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 3:34 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:05 (3:12 / km)
Total: 20:11
21 / 17 Ben Fressier
FRA
+8 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:07
6:13
 20:13
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Fressier

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:13 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 20:13
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 3:33 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:13 / km)
Total: 20:13
22 / 14 Andrin Gallert
SUI
+13 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:11
5:59
 20:17
Show details
Prediction details: Andrin Gallert

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 7–23
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:38
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:11 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 20:17
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:38 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:11 (3:15 / km)
Total: 20:17
23 / 21 Michael Stiebel
ISR
+7 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:15
6:22
 20:21
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Stiebel

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:32
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (20 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:15 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 20:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:32 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:45 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 6:15 (3:18 / km)
Total: 20:21
24 / 25 Maks Mori
SLO
+24 s
+24 s
G2 / G3
 6:00
6:06
 21:17
Show details
Prediction details: Maks Mori

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 6–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:49
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 21:17
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:49 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:42 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:09 / km)
Total: 21:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:48
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 23 Jakub Marik
CZE
+26 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:00
6:02
 21:17
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Marik

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 3:51
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 8.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:02 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 21:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:51 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:42 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:09 / km)
Total: 21:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:48
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 26 Jiri Heppener
NED
+35 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 6:03
6:25
 21:20
Show details
Prediction details: Jiri Heppener

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 25–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:03 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 21:20
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:42 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 6:03 (3:11 / km)
Total: 21:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:48
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.